EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls remain cautious below 23.6% Fibo. and 1.1470 hurdle
The EUR/USD pair continues to face resistance below the 1.1470 psychological level and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, as bulls tread cautiously in a market characterized by uncertainty. Current trading at 1.1434 suggests a delicate balance, with traders wary of committing further until decisive price action is observed. This hesitation is compounded by conflicting outlooks from major institutions, as consensus targets reveal significant variation, indicating a broader market indecision and reflecting divergence in underlying economic narratives in the Eurozone and the U.S.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Scotiabank at the lower bound (1.1200) and Commerzbank at the upper end (1.2000). This contrasts with the FXStreet headline's cautious stance surrounding the 1.1470 resistance, highlighting the potential for volatility as the market grapples with various monetary policy direction signals.
How firms align
Major firms are split in their forecasts; Goldman and MUFG project more bullish targets for March 2026 at 1.1800, while Citi is notably more cautious at just 1.1300 for the same tenor. Notably, institutions like Deutsche Bank and Standard Chartered also align with a bullish view, further reinforcing expectations of potential upward movement in the pair. For more insights, refer to our internal pages on Goldman and Citi.
What the data shows
The recent shifts in forecast revisions indicate a tightening of views around the 1.1700 target, with Goldman revising their projection upwards to 1.1800. This aligns with recent analyses of consensus against spot movements featured in our reports, particularly /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-13.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bulls hovering below the key 1.1470 hurdle; cautious sentiment prevails.
- 02Watch for confirmation above 1.1470 to signal sustained upward momentum.
- 03Diverging firm forecasts illustrate market uncertainty; target range highlights this.
- 04Resistance at 1.1470 crucial for further bullish commitments.
Market implications
Moving forward, traders should closely monitor the 1.1470 level as a breakout point that could lead to a broader bullish trend. Additionally, upcoming ECB meetings and U.S. economic data releases could serve as potential catalysts influencing market positioning in the EUR/USD pair. Keeping in line with our consensus number of 1.1700 will be crucial for maintaining bullish sentiment.
Risks to this view
A failure to maintain momentum above 1.1470 could invalidate this bullish outlook, with a potential drop back towards 1.1300 serving as a warning signal. Key economic indicators such as U.S. CPI and employment reports may alter the trajectory, especially if they unexpectedly favor dollar strength over euro resilience.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro gains as softer US inflation weighs on US Dollar
Below-expected US inflation reduces Fed rate-hike expectations, pressuring USD across G10 pairs and extending EUR/USD strength.
Euro: Rate support at risk against US Dollar with energy shock – ING
Energy shock undermines ECB rate differentials vs USD, exposing EUR/USD to fresh downside if growth concerns outpace rate expectations.