EUR/USD Price Forecast: Buyers eye a break above the 100-day SMA
The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1419, with bullish sentiment gaining traction as buyers look to breach the 100-day SMA, which could signify further upward momentum. This level is critical not just for technical reasons but also as a psychological barrier for traders. With our consensus target positioned at 1.1583, market participants are cautiously optimistic about a strengthening Euro against the Dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1583 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.2200) and Danske Bank at the lower (1.1100). FXStreet's focus on a break above the 100-day SMA aligns with the sentiment shared by firms like Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs, who both project targets above current levels.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs projects a March target of 1.1800, while Deutsche Bank is slightly more optimistic with a target of 1.1800 for the same tenor. Both firms underscore the potential for a bullish breakout as highlighted in our recent forecasts. This positions them in agreement with FXStreet's bullish narrative.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like BofA and UOB have adjusted their March targets to 1.1700, signifying a more bullish stance recently adopted by the market. For more insights, refer to our published research at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-07, which examines potential ECB rate paths impacting EUR/USD dynamics.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Spot at 1.1419 suggests bullish potential if 100-day SMA is breached.
- 02Buyers eyeing a technical breakout; break above could trigger further gains.
- 03Consensus target at 1.1583 indicates broader market optimism amidst shifting forecasts.
Market implications
Next focus should be on the 100-day SMA, currently acting as resistance. A confirmed break above this level could propel EUR/USD towards our consensus target of 1.1583, creating new bullish positioning opportunities.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bullish outlook could occur if the Federal Reserve maintains a more hawkish stance than anticipated or if economic data from the Eurozone significantly underperforms, forcing reconsideration of the sustained euro strength.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: US inflation and war doldrums to keep shaping market's mood
US inflation data and geopolitical risk-off sentiment remain primary drivers of EUR/USD directionality; USD strength likely persists absent dovish Fed signals.
Euro: Fed repricing supports moderate gains against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Market repricing of Fed rate expectations narrows USD support, allowing EUR/USD to consolidate higher near-term resistance levels.
Euro: Upside bias hinges on 1.1565 break against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD break above 1.1565 would signal completion of recovery structure and shift bias toward further upside; key chart resistance for positioning.