CEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and inflation, and Romania rate decision
Lead — The desk anticipates a steady monetary stance from the National Bank of Romania, as inflationary pressures remain palpable, while Polish economic indicators are expected to confirm a mild uptick. Per the full note source, the Polish CPI is projected to hold at 3.0% year-on-year, bolstered primarily by rising fuel prices, while GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 3.8% in Q2 2026, reflecting related gains in investment. The Romanian central bank's cautious approach in light of macroeconomic imbalances underscores the prevailing uncertainty in the region. Overall, both sets of data will be pivotal in shaping market sentiment in the coming weeks.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the National Bank of Romania will maintain its current policy rates, as inflation concerns persist alongside external economic uncertainties. According to the source commentary, Romania has kept its policy rate unchanged since August 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to ongoing macroeconomic challenges.
In Poland, inflation is expected to confirm at 3.0% year-on-year, with Q2 GDP growth anticipated to rise to 3.8% from 3.5% in the previous quarter. Key data releases will provide insights into core inflation trends and the external balance of payments position, potentially impacting forex flows.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for the EUR/PLN is 1.075, with a range between 1.04 and 1.12. Specific firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, reflecting confidence in Polish economic resilience, with emphasis on the upcoming releases as central to market positioning. Contrary positions are noted from bofa, which adopts a more cautious retargeting of the PLN.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms like jpmorgan expect upward movement in the PLN amidst favorable economic data, whereas bofa remains skeptical, identifying risks tied to external headwinds. Market participants should closely monitor the EUR/PLN trajectory, especially in the context of Polish inflation and growth figures, as well as the overarching influence of NBR policy stability.
What the calendar says
The upcoming week highlights crucial data releases, including the final July CPI on Thursday and Q2 GDP figures, pivotal for assessing economic trends in both Poland and Romania. With no high-impact events currently scheduled beyond these data points, the marked focus remains on these indicators to shape market expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01NBR likely to maintain policy rates amid persistent inflationary concerns.
- 02Polish CPI expected to hold steady at 3.0%, with GDP growth anticipated to rise.
- 03Data releases next week critical for understanding economic momentum in CEE.
- 04Macro imbalances continue to pose risks for Romanian monetary policy.
Market implications
Key levels to monitor include the 3.0% inflation mark in Poland and upcoming GDP figures, as these metrics may dictate PLN volatility. Positive surprises on the inflation front could bolster PLN positioning against major pairs, while caution among Romanian policymakers could lead to increased risk aversion.
Risks to this view
A deviation from expected inflation or GDP growth outcomes, or an unforeseen shift in central bank communications, could challenge the current outlook. Increased geopolitical tensions or a sharp decline in external demand may also pose significant risks to economic stability in the region.
Articles CEE & CCA week ahead: Polish GDP and inflation, and Romania rate decision Published 12:30 Key Events Czech Republic Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download We expect the National Bank of Romania to leave rates unchanged on 10 August, extending the pause in place since August 2024. The week will also bring inflation data from across the CEE and CCA regions Adam Antoniak , Valentin Tataru and David Havrlant We do not expect the National Bank of Romania to alter its monetary stance at the 10 August meeting Poland: Headline inflation to be confirmed at 3% The final release of July CPI on Thursday should confirm headline inflation at 3.0% year-on-year, mainly on the back of higher gasoline and diesel prices. At the same time, our initial forecast points to an uptick in core inflation, and the detailed CPI basket should shed some light on the sources of this increase.
Thursday sees the release of 2Q26 flash GDP. We estimate that GDP growth accelerated to 3.8%YoY from 3.5%YoY in 1Q26 despite a further slowdown in private consumption as investment growth gained momentum. The detailed GDP with its composition will be published at the end of August.
We will also get June Balance of Payments data on Thursday. We forecast the July current account deficit of the balance of payments at €1339mn and estimate that the 12-month rolling deficit deteriorated to 0.9% of GDP from 0.8% of GDP after May. The deficit in trade in goods is projected at €609mn as exports rose by 6.2%YoY, while imports advanced 7.9%YoY.
Romania: NBR rate decision With the policy rate unchanged since August 2024, we do not expect the National Bank of Romania (NBR) to alter its monetary stance at the 10 August meeting. In our view, policymakers are likely to maintain a cautious approach given the still-elevated inflation backdrop, external uncertainties, and Romania's sizeable macroeconomic imbalances. We therefore continue to expect the first rate cut from the current 6.50% level only in January 2027.
Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the upside. Continued geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could trigger renewed pressures on global energy prices, complicating the disinflation process. At the same time, periods of heightened risk aversion could lead to capital outflows from emerging markets, with Romania particularly exposed given its large fiscal and current account deficits.
On Wednesday, July CPI data is released. We expect the release to mark the beginning of a more favourable base-effect dynamic. As a result, headline inflation should decelerate sharply from 10.4% year-on-year in June to around 7.6% in July.
Sources & References
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