EUR/USD Price Forecast: Euro forms potential higher low above 100-day SMA
The Euro is currently positioned above the 100-day SMA, which could indicate the formation of a higher low in the EUR/USD market. This technical setup is critical as it suggests a potential upward shift, providing a crucial support level for the Euro. With the current spot at 1.1446, the weakening U.S. dollar amidst ongoing market uncertainties reinforces this projection, emphasizing the importance of the Euro's resilience in the face of economic headwinds.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Llyods at the lower (1.1331). The analysis from fxstreet.com aligns with the broader market sentiment that supports the Euro's potential for a higher low above the 100-day SMA.
How firms align
Firms like RBC and Nomura anticipate targets of 1.1600 and 1.1700 respectively for March 2026, siding with the view that the Euro could continue its upward trajectory. Conversely, Danskebank's lower targets of 1.1200 for June 2026 contradict this sentiment, indicating caution in their outlook compared to the headline's bullish framing.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show an upward shift in targets, particularly from UBS and Morgan Stanley, illustrating a growing confidence in EUR strength. Insights from our recent research, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-03, highlight a prevailing target median of 1.17 across the board.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD holds at 1.1446; potential higher low above the 100-day SMA.
- 02Watch for bullish signals; key resistance at 1.1700.
- 03A breach below 1.1400 could signal a reversal; monitor U.S. economic data.
Market implications
Traders should watch for EUR/USD to test the support level at 1.1400 in the coming sessions, with the next major catalyst being the ECB rate decision on September 10. Consensus targets suggest a resistance line is forming around 1.1700, a critical level for directional sentiment in the coming weeks.
Risks to this view
A reversal of this bullish outlook could occur if the Euro drops below 1.1400, indicating a stronger dollar or adverse economic data from Europe. Additionally, any shifts in ECB policy that signal a more aggressive tightening path could undermine current market positioning.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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