Euro slips against US Dollar as Nonfarm Payrolls crush expectations
The Euro has depreciated against the US Dollar following a significantly robust Nonfarm Payrolls report, illustrating the disparity in economic strength between the two regions. This unexpected data put additional pressure on the Euro, highlighting the market's diminishing confidence in its strength. As traders reassess monetary policy timelines, this shift could have profound implications for the EUR/USD trajectory in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper end of the spectrum (1.2000) and Stanchart at the lower bound (1.1400). FXStreet's coverage aligns closely with this broader view, noting the heightened market sensitivity following the latest U.S. employment figures.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley's assertive target of 1.2000 for March 2026 reflects a bullish outlook amidst the payroll data, while Stanchart suggests a more conservative approach with a target of 1.1400. Notably, RBC's target of 1.1600 indicates a midpoint stance that slightly leans towards the Euro recovering. For detailed breakdowns, see our reports on the respective firms' outlooks.
What the data shows
Recent revisions have shown adjustment in targets with UBS and Credit Agricole aligning on targets around the mid to upper 1.1 range, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook. For deeper insights into the ECB's stance, reference our piece at /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-09-10.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD has dropped to 1.1446 amid strong U.S. jobs data, reflecting market recalibrations.
- 02Traders should closely watch for further economic indicators that could sway sentiment.
- 03Positive U.S. data could push EUR/USD further below 1.14, reevaluating previous supports.
- 04Catalysts such as ECB policy announcements could drastically shift market sentiment.
Market implications
As we await further economic releases, particularly from the U.S., traders should monitor the 1.14 level for support. Additionally, the upcoming ECB meeting and its implications on interest rates will be crucial for the Euro’s performance. Our consensus target of 1.1700 could redefine expectations if downward pressure continues.
Risks to this view
A rebound in Eurozone economic indicators or a marked shift in ECB policy towards a dovish stance could invalidate the bearish outlook. Specifically, a surprise increase in European inflation or revisions to growth forecasts could lead to a strengthening Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.75
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD awaits US Labour market data
Euro: Gradual recovery from Warsh sell-off against US Dollar – ING
Warsh hawkish comments drove USD strength; gradual EUR recovery suggests sentiment shift but underlying USD support remains intact.