EUR/USD Price Forecast: Extends recovery above 1.1200 at US Dollar's expense
EUR/USD has extended its recovery above the 1.1200 threshold, marking a continued weakening of the US dollar amid an environment supportive of the euro. This price movement indicates a growing bullish sentiment towards the euro as traders respond to macroeconomic developments favoring its strength. With the current spot at 1.1253, momentum points to potential further gains if this upward trend consolidates, particularly as investors await key data that could influence this trajectory.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently rests at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with firm views ranging from 1.1200 to as high as 1.2000 beyond March 2026. This outlook shows divergence, with firms like Rabobank and Nomura aligning closely with higher targets.
How firms align
Notably, Rabobank has set its March target at 1.1759 while SocGen sees it as high as 1.2000, both reflecting bullish sentiment similar to the headline’s view. In contrast, firms like TMG and Mizuho have more conservative views, with March targets below 1.1500, indicating split prospects amongst market participants.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions, such as Rabobank raising its March target to 1.1759, underline the bullish trajectory for EUR/USD as firms adjust to unfolding market conditions. The research document titled /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-13 highlights a notable consensus gap where the spot is trading significantly below forecasts.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1253, higher than key resistance levels.
- 02Bullish sentiment evident; traders should consider consolidation patterns.
- 03Focus on upcoming economic data that may impact USD strength.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1200 level for signs of consolidation that could signal further strength in EUR/USD. Attention will also shift to upcoming economic releases, particularly US inflation data, to gauge any potential shifts in USD positioning matching our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A surprise uptick in US economic data could challenge the current bullish outlook for EUR/USD, leading to a reversal if it solidifies USD strength. Additionally, geopolitical developments could introduce volatility that impacts the euro negatively.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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