EUR/USD Price Forecast: Likely find direction after US CPI data
The EUR/USD pair currently rests at 1.1678, anticipating a decisive move post-US CPI data release. The impending data could significantly influence market sentiment and the trajectory of this pair, as traders weigh potential shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy against the backdrop of rising inflation. Recent updates suggest a moderate bullish outlook among various market players, but the consensus remains closely clustered around the 1.17 mark, indicating cautious positioning ahead of key data.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with projections ranging from a low of 1.1200 to a high of 1.2000. Notably, Morgan Stanley and CIBC are situated at the upper end of the spectrum, forecasting 1.2000, while firms like TMG and UOB project significantly lower targets of around 1.1447 and 1.1536, respectively.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley (Mar26 1.2000) and CIBC (Mar26 1.1866) provide bullish forecasts that align closely with the anticipated direction pointed out in the headline. In contrast, firms such as TMG (Mar26 1.1447) and UOB (Mar26 1.1536) represent a more cautious outlook that diverges from this sentiment.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like Scotiabank (Mar26 1.1734) and Mizuho (Mar26 1.1800) suggest a slight upward shift in expectations, indicating a potential stabilizing sentiment with the consensus staying firmly at the 1.17 level. For more insights, see our coverage in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1678, potentially poised for movement after CPI.
- 02Market focused on US inflation data; volatility expected.
- 03Key resistance at 1.1700 may be tested post-data, with consensus in sight.
Market implications
Watch the upcoming US CPI release as a potential market catalyst that could drive EUR/USD towards our consensus target of 1.1700. A strong inflation print may encourage further dollar strength, while soft data might bolster the euro's position.
Risks to this view
A reversal in sentiment could occur if CPI data reveals stronger-than-expected inflation, prompting a more aggressive Fed stance. This would significantly undermine the current bullish forecasts for the euro against the dollar.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: To hike or not to hike? Kevin Warsh between a rock and a hard place
Euro steadies against US Dollar after volatile reaction to US CPI
Euro: Downside risks while 1.1585 holds against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD 1.1585 support breach would signal resumption of downtrend; monitor for break below key technical level.