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EUR/USD sits at 1.1640 heading into the full EUR/USD bank forecast table, with the 30-firm cross-bank consensus pointing to 1.17 by December 2026 — a spread of 0.14 between the most bullish and most bearish published targets on the street.
Key Numbers
- Live spot: 1.1640
- Cross-firm consensus (Dec-26 median, 30 firms): 1.17
- Dispersion (max − min): 0.14
- Gap, spot vs consensus: −0.51% (spot trades below consensus)
- Most bullish: Nordea at 1.24
- Most bearish: Citi at 1.10
Where Does the Street Stand Ahead of September 16?
| Firm | Dec-2026 target | Stance |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 1.12 | bullish |
| Bank of America | 1.12 | bullish |
| J.P. Morgan | 1.13 | bullish |
| Crédit Agricole | 1.13 | neutral |
| Société Générale | 1.14 | bullish |
| Mizuho | 1.15 | bearish |
| Standard Chartered | 1.16 | bullish |
| Scotiabank | 1.17 | neutral |
| ING | 1.17 | neutral |
| UBS | 1.18 | bullish |
| Rabobank | 1.18 | neutral |
| MUFG | 1.18 | bullish |
| UOB | 1.18 | neutral |
| Morgan Stanley | 1.215 | bullish |
The calendar consensus estimate for the September 16 FOMC decision is 4.00%, against a current policy rate of 3.75% — implying a 25bp hike is the base case priced by the market. The Federal Reserve policy tracker shows the Fed has moved rates 25bp at each of the last two meetings, and the September decision arrives at 18:00 UTC with Chair commentary likely to carry as much weight as the rate itself.
Among the 14 most recently updated desks, the directional split is notably asymmetric. Eight carry a bullish EUR/USD stance, four are neutral, and only Mizuho registers as outright bearish — flagging the pair at 1.15, below current spot. The bullish majority is not, however, uniform in conviction: Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both carry bullish stances on EUR/USD yet publish targets of 1.12, well below the current 1.1640 print — a reminder that stance labels reflect directional bias from each desk's own reference point, not necessarily a call for the pair to rally from here.
What Does a Hike, Hold, or Surprise Cut Mean for Published Targets?
The reaction map against firm targets breaks cleanly across three scenarios.
Hike to 4.00% (calendar base case). A 25bp hike delivered in line with consensus would narrow the rate differential argument that has supported EUR/USD through the summer. Desks with targets at or below spot — Goldman at 1.12, BofA at 1.12, J.P. Morgan at 1.13 — would see their below-spot calls gain near-term traction if the dollar firms on the print. The move would need to be accompanied by hawkish forward guidance to push spot materially through 1.15 and validate the lower-target cluster. A hike without fresh hawkish language is likely to be absorbed quickly; the 30-firm consensus at 1.17 implies the majority of desks do not expect sustained dollar strength from a single on-consensus move.
Hold at 3.75%. A surprise hold would remove the rate-hike catalyst and likely send EUR/USD toward the 1.17–1.18 band where Scotiabank, ING, UBS, Rabobank, MUFG, and UOB have clustered their year-end targets. That band sits roughly 1.7%–3.1% above spot and represents the modal outcome in the current consensus distribution. Morgan Stanley at 1.215 would remain the most ambitious achievable target in a hold scenario, though reaching it by December would require additional catalysts beyond Fed inaction alone.
Surprise cut. Not the calendar base case. Were the Fed to cut — reversing the tightening trajectory — EUR/USD would likely gap toward the upper end of the published range. Nordea's 1.24 top target, which sits 0.14 above Citi's 1.10 floor, would move from outlier to plausible within the scenario. No desk in the updated 14 has explicitly positioned for a cut as a base case.
Which Desks Are the Outliers and Why Does the Dispersion Matter?
Per-firm Q1→Q4 path with revision arrows from each firm's prior published target. Sorted ascending by terminal target.
Source: HSBC · Citi · Danskebank · Lloyds +26 more
30 firms aggregated · as of 2026-09-10 06:08 UTC
At 0.14 — the gap between the 1.24 ceiling and the 1.10 floor across all 30 firms — the dispersion in this consensus is wide relative to the 0.51% gap between spot and the median. That arithmetic signals two things: the central tendency is relatively tight (most targets cluster between 1.12 and 1.18), but tail risks are meaningful. Nordea's 1.24 call implies a structural dollar weakening thesis that goes well beyond a single Fed meeting. Citi's 1.10 floor implies dollar resilience that would require either sustained Fed hawkishness or a deterioration in eurozone fundamentals not yet reflected in the ECB's resumed hiking cycle.
For the September 16 print specifically, the actionable range for most desks is narrower: a confirmed 25bp hike keeps the pair anchored near the 1.15–1.17 zone; a hold accelerates the drift toward 1.18. The 0.51% discount of spot to consensus suggests the market has not fully priced the bullish scenario that the majority of desks are publishing.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the cross-bank EUR/USD consensus for December 2026?
The median target across 30 firms is 1.17, with spot currently at 1.1640 — a gap of −0.51% relative to consensus.
How wide is the disagreement between banks?
Dispersion across all 30 firms is 0.14, with Nordea at the top (1.24) and Citi at the bottom (1.10).
What does the Fed decision on September 16 mean for EUR/USD targets?
The calendar base case is a hike to 4.00% from 3.75%; a hike in line with expectations is unlikely alone to shift the majority of published targets, while a hold would support the 1.17–1.18 cluster where the largest number of desks have anchored their year-end calls.
Which bank is most bullish on EUR/USD heading into the Fed meeting?
Among the 30 firms in the consensus, Nordea carries the highest published target at 1.24. Among the 14 most recently updated desks, Morgan Stanley leads at 1.215.
→ See the full Morgan Stanley FX outlook at Morgan Stanley forecasts.
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