EUR/USD Price Forecast: Monthly outlook mixed, daily chart remains bearish
The outlook for EUR/USD remains complex, with daily technical signals indicating bearish pressure despite mixed monthly sentiments. Currently trading at 1.1446, the pair appears vulnerable, with key support levels in focus for potential breakdowns. Market consensus suggests a recovery could push targets closer to 1.1700 in the medium term, but immediate sentiment remains unfavorable toward the euro against the USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is positioned at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Investec and RBC representing the upper range at 1.1700 and 1.1600 respectively, while Lloyds holds a more cautious outlook at 1.1200. This reflects a broad divergence among forecasts, with some firms predicting significant strength for the euro, while others lean bearish in the near term.
How firms align
Several firms including SocGen (1.1700) and Nomura (1.1700) align with the more optimistic perspective outlined in the headline, while BofA's recent moves to lower their targets (1.1200) resonate with the bearish technical signals. For detailed insights, see our research on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-30.
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight BofA's downward adjustment, reflecting a tighter view on the euro's strength against the dollar, which could impact overall sentiment moving forward. Notably, our published research indicates a continuous gap between current spot prices and consensus targets, underscoring potential volatility ahead.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD trading at 1.1446 shows bearish technicals outweighing mixed fundamental outlooks.
- 02Traders should monitor key support levels for a breakdown confirmation.
- 03BofA's revised lower target (1.1200) signals potential risks for the euro's strength.
- 04Firm consensus remains upward biased for the medium term, creating tension with current pricing.
Market implications
Looking ahead, traders should focus on the critical support level around 1.1400. Any sustained break below could intensify bearish sentiments, while a bounce could help reaffirm the medium-term consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A significant economic surprise or a more aggressive ECB stance could shift market dynamics, invalidating the bearish outlook. Additionally, developments in US economic indicators may further sway USD strength.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD: Measured ECB tightening to support Euro – TD Securities
ECB tightening cycle expected to provide structural support for EUR/USD, reducing near-term USD strength relative to euro.
What is driving the US Dollar to multi-month highs against the Euro as PCE data approaches?
USD strength ahead of PCE print reflects market pricing for higher-for-longer US rates relative to ECB easing cycle expectations.