EUR/USD Price Forecast: Remains sticky to 20-day EMA
The EUR/USD remains tethered to the 20-day EMA, currently trading at 1.1446, reflecting ongoing market indecision amidst shifting forecasts. This stability suggests a delicate balance as traders weigh upcoming ECB decisions against mixed economic signals from the Eurozone. A close eye on the ECB's stance, particularly in light of recent rate expectations, is crucial as it could catalyze a breakout from this technical range.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower (1.1200). FXStreet's view seems to align more closely with the midpoint, acknowledging the current stickiness around the 20-day EMA as a pivotal point for the pair.
How firms align
RBC and Nomura both project 1.1700 for March 2026, in tune with the headline's overall sentiment regarding a gradual increase in EUR/USD. Conversely, Stanchart has positioned itself at 1.1400, raising concerns about near-term weakness, as noted in their latest insights (/reports/stanchart).
What the data shows
Recent revisions highlight a range of expectations, with Morgan Stanley notably raising their March target to 1.2000. This upward revision signals bullish sentiment that contrasts with Stanchart's more conservative outlook of 1.1400, as discussed in our publication on expected ECB decisions (/research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-09-10).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Current EUR/USD spot at 1.1446, holding steady around the 20-day EMA.
- 02Traders should monitor ECB's rate decision as a potential catalyst.
- 03Potential breakout above 1.1700 could shift market sentiment significantly.
- 04Near-term forecasts vary widely, necessitating a cautious approach.
Market implications
Investors should watch for breaks above 1.1700 or below 1.1400 as critical thresholds that could signal a trend shift. The upcoming ECB meeting on September 10 is a key event that could influence the euro's performance against the dollar.
Risks to this view
A hawkish ECB stance or stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data could invalidate the current bullish sentiment, pushing EUR/USD below the critical support level at 1.1400. Additionally, geopolitical tensions could further complicate the outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1625 vs 1.17 Median, Week of September 7, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.16248, roughly 0.64% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus median of 1.17, with a 0.14 spread separating the most bullish and bearish desks.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1614 vs 1.17 Median, Week of September 5, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 0.74% below the 30-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.17, with a 0.14 range separating Nordea's 1.24 bull case from Citi's 1.10 bear.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1614 vs 1.17 Median, Week of September 4, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 0.74% below the 30-firm Dec-26 median of 1.17, with a 0.14-point dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the path ahead.