Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The recent forecast video from FXStreet points to ongoing volatility in the FX markets, with particular focus on pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY. The current EUR/USD spot at 1.1446 reflects significant expectations from various firms, as seen in our latest consensus figures. Market participants are particularly interested in how central bank policies will influence these currency movements in the upcoming weeks, considering that the median target hovers around 1.1700 amidst a wide range of individual forecasts, from 1.1200 to 1.2000.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus for the EUR/USD sits at 1.1700 (median across 13 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower bound (1.1331). FXStreet's forecast aligns closely with this outlook, hinting at continued strengthening of the euro, backed by recent economic data.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley (Mar26: 1.2000) and RBC (Mar26: 1.1600) are bullish on the EUR/USD trajectory, supporting the broader optimistic sentiment reflected in the FXStreet analysis. Conversely, Danske Bank’s lower projection of 1.1100 for December 2026 indicates some skepticism present in the market, which diverges from the prevailing consensus. Their insights can be examined further in our /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-07 report.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions show that UBS upgraded their March 2026 EUR target to 1.2000, while Credit Agricole has tightened their projection to 1.1584. This trend suggests a consistent bullish sentiment towards the EUR as the ECB's monetary policy continues to evolve. Additional context can be found in our related insights such as /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-09-10.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD current spot is 1.1446, with forecasts clustering around 1.1700.
- 02Focus on ECB policy shifts as a key driver for euro strength.
- 03A break above 1.1700 could signal further gains; watch the central bank rates announcements.
- 04Expect fluctuations as central bank strategies unfold amid geopolitical tensions.
Market implications
Next week, the upcoming ECB decision could serve as a catalyst for movements in the EUR/USD, particularly if the decision aligns with the current consensus target of 1.1700. Watching how the market reacts to comments from ECB officials will be crucial as we approach this decision.
Risks to this view
A failure of the ECB to signal a path of rate hikes could invalidate the current bullish view on the euro, particularly if inflation data suggests a continued need for accommodation. Additionally, any negative economic data from the Eurozone may lead to a reevaluation of current expectations.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro benefits from weaker US Dollar as ECB decision looms
USD weakness ahead of ECB decision creates potential EUR/USD rally, but direction hinges on whether ECB signals dovish or hawkish tilt at meeting.