EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rises to near 1.1450 after breaking above nine-day EMA
The EUR/USD exchange rate climbed to approximately 1.1450 after a decisive move above the nine-day EMA, indicating a potential build-up in bullish momentum. This technical breakthrough is noteworthy as it comes amid broader market sentiment that favors the euro against the USD, though the lack of significant fundamental catalysts raises questions about sustainability. As traders monitor this development, attention will likely turn to upcoming economic indicators that could lend further support to the euro.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is at 1.1750 (median across 12 firms), with Deutsche Bank situated at the upper end (1.2500) and Citi at the lower (1.1000). The positive view from the recent technical break is supported by forecasts from firms like Goldman and MUFG, who both expect targets around 1.1800 for March.
How firms align
Goldman’s revised target of 1.1800 for March aligns closely with the bullish momentum indicated by the recent technical breakout, positioning them favorably in this narrative. Conversely, Citi maintains a more conservative stance at 1.1300, suggesting a disparity in outlook compared to the prevailing sentiment reflected in the headline.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show Goldman has raised their forecast to 1.1800 for March, reinforcing the bullish sentiment towards the EUR/USD. This fits within a broader context outlined in our research such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-12, highlighting the divergence between the current spot price and consensus expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD inched to 1.1450 after breaking the nine-day EMA.
- 02Watch for confirmation of bullish momentum in upcoming economic data.
- 03A level above 1.1450 could signal sustained momentum toward 1.1750.
- 04Skepticism remains due to lack of fundamental support.
Market implications
Investors should keep an eye on the 1.1450 level as a key psychological barrier; a sustained breach could push the pair towards our consensus target of 1.1750. Additionally, upcoming U.S. economic data releases will be critical for gauging the dollar’s response and determining whether the euro can maintain its strength.
Risks to this view
Any significant U.S. economic data that surpasses expectations could reverse the current bullish trend for the euro, pushing EUR/USD lower. Furthermore, unexpected geopolitical developments or shifts in central bank policies could destabilize the sentiment and invalidate the current bullish outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro climbs above 1.1400 as US Dollar loses ground
EUR/USD break above 1.1400 signals weakening USD momentum; monitor whether move sustains or reverts on thin flows.
Euro: Range trading with downside risks against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD positioned in range with structural downside bias; implies USD strength thesis intact unless technical support breached.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Flag breakdown supports more downside towards 1.1325
Technical breakdown through flag pattern signals EUR/USD vulnerability toward 1.1325, establishing fresh downside target for short positioning.
Euro weakens to near 1.1400 as US-Iran escalation boosts US Dollar
Geopolitical risk premium supporting USD as safe-haven flows accelerate; monitor for ECB response if volatility persists.
Bank desks on this topic
G10 FX Talking: Dollar upside looks limited
Articles G10 FX Talking: Dollar upside looks limited Published 13:05 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The dollar has been performing well on the view that the Fed will tighten. ING's take is that the Fed will ultimately ride out this
Asia FX Talking: Large export flows yet to help North Asian FX
Articles Asia FX Talking: Large export flows yet to help North Asian FX Published 13:02 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Trade data continues to suggest that North Asian currencies should be enjoying the benefits of large export flow
FX Talking: Dancing in the dark
Reports Report FX Talking: Dancing in the dark Published 13:00 FX The dollar is holding onto Fed-driven gains, but we expect the central bank to look through temporary inflation and avoid further tightening. That should limit the dollar's upside and support EUR/USD later this yea
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot: Week of July 13, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3% below the 28-firm Dec-26 median target of 1.1750, exposing a wide consensus-to-market gap that hinges on rate-path assumptions.
EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot Gap: Week of July 12, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits at 1.1415, roughly 2.85% below the 28-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1750, leaving consensus firmly bullish against a pair that has not caught up.
EUR/USD Trades 2.85% Below Dec-26 Consensus of 1.1750
EUR/USD spot at 1.1415 sits 2.85% beneath the 28-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.1750, with a 0.20-figure dispersion range exposing deep macro disagreement.