EUR/USD Price Forecast: RSI signals stretched selling pressure
The EUR/USD pair is currently experiencing significant selling pressure, as indicated by RSI levels that suggest a stretched market. With the current spot trading at 1.1253, traders are evaluating the balance of the prevailing bearish momentum against consensus forecasts that remain notably higher. The disparity between the market level and expectations may signal an opportunity for reversal, contingent on upcoming macroeconomic data and shifts in sentiment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is 1.1700 for March 2026 (median across firms), with a wide range reflecting varied outlooks — Rabobank positions at 1.1759 as the upper target, while UOB and Mizuho sit closer to the lower bound around 1.1447. This current pricing indicates a more aggressive selling environment, particularly with efficient divergence from forecast expectations.
How firms align
Rabobank and Société Générale align their targets closely with the current market dynamic, forecasting 1.1759 and 1.1700 for March 2026 respectively. Their positions support the notion of a potential rebound, contrasting with Mizuho's more bearish stance at 1.1300. For detailed perspectives, see our internal report on /research/rabobank and /research/socgen.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have shown a slight uptick; for example, Rabobank revised its forecast to 1.1759 for March and 1.1800 for December. This aligns with our published insights, particularly the report at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-13, which details the growing consensus gap against current spot prices.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Market sentiment shows EUR/USD under pressure, currently at 1.1253.
- 02Watch for divergence from consensus; firms anticipate prices around 1.1700 in the medium term.
- 03Key macroeconomic data releases this month could trigger shifts in market sentiment.
- 04Bearish sentiment could persist unless we see a decisive move back above 1.1300.
Market implications
Next, watch the EUR/USD closely for a potential shift around the 1.1300 level, which may provide key support. On the economic calendar, the upcoming ECB meeting will be critical in shaping market expectations and may align with our consensus target of 1.1700 if positive sentiments prevail.
Risks to this view
A failure to meet anticipated economic metrics or further deterioration in Eurozone data could invalidate the bullish outlook, potentially pushing prices towards the lower forecast targets around 1.1300. Similarly, any unexpected hawkish signals from the Fed may strengthen the USD further.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro holds mild gains above 1.1200 as US Dollar drifts with US CPI on tap
EUR/USD holding above 1.1200 ahead of US CPI print; directional USD moves likely contingent on inflation data beat/miss versus consensus.