EUR/USD Price Forecast: Softens to near 1.1200, sub-100-day SMA keep outlook bearish
The EUR/USD pair is under significant pressure, trading near 1.1210, as French fiscal concerns weigh heavily on the Euro. This bearish sentiment is compounded by the prevailing technical headwinds, with the 100-day SMA looming as a formidable resistance barrier. As sentiment around the Euro remains negative, the outlook for the currency appears increasingly fragile. The market is currently digesting these dynamics as traders brace for further movements around the key 1.1200 level.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1600 (median across various firms), with CIBC projecting the highest target of 1.2200 by December 2026 and TMGN at the lower end with 1.1448. This current bearish sentiment regarding the Euro aligns with a more cautious outlook shared among several firms.
How firms align
Nomura and Rabobank reflect a bearish view, with targets of 1.1700 and 1.1759 respectively for March 2026, in line with the concerns highlighted in the initial coverage. Both firms' forecasts suggest a struggle for the Euro against the Dollar, especially given ongoing concerns about fiscal stability in France.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from UBS indicate an upward adjustment to 1.2000 for March 2026, yet many firms remain cautious, as evidenced by reports showing a divergence between spot prices and consensus targets. For further details, see our insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-23.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD nears critical support at 1.1200, with the outlook soured by French fiscal concerns.
- 02Technical resistance at the 100-day SMA may limit upward movement.
- 03Watch for signs of consolidation or breakdown around the 1.1200 level this week.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1200 level as a pivotal point. Continued selling pressure could prompt movements toward the consensus target of 1.1600. Upcoming economic releases related to Eurozone fiscal policies may further influence sentiment on the Euro.
Risks to this view
A significant improvement in France's fiscal outlook or a broad market shift towards risk-on sentiment could invalidate the current bearish view on EUR/USD. Additionally, unexpected shifts in ECB monetary policy could alter the trajectory for the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro retreats as US Dollar regains ground, France's debt worries weigh
French fiscal deterioration and political risk are now exerting visible pressure on EUR/USD technicals; watch for further ER/USD breaks if domestic political clarity fails to materialize.
Euro: French spreads threaten downside against US Dollar – BBH
French fiscal stress and widening OAT-Bund spreads create tail risk for EUR/USD support, with 1.1000 now in play if political uncertainty deepens before 2027.
Euro: Limited upside as US Dollar stays strong – ING
Fed tightening expectations remain anchored while EUR/USD downside is capped only by short-covering; structural Dollar strength likely persists.