Tier 2 specialistfxstreet.comCentral banksFX
Loading…
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Institutional FX coverage in your inbox
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 38 institutional desks. No promotion.
Chris Turner from ING indicates that while EUR/USD is resilient amid rising energy prices and concerns over France's budget, it faces limited upward potential due to sustained strength in the US Dollar. The unwinding of heavy tech and dollar positions has contributed to euro stability. Nevertheless, firm Fed tightening expectations suggest a robust dollar in the coming months, creating headwinds for the euro's rally.
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and ABN AMRO at the lower bound (1.1284). ING's perspective aligns closely with this consensus, indicating tempered expectations for the euro amidst strong dollar dynamics.
Notably, firms like RBC and HSBC also project targets around 1.1700, signifying a collective outlook for stability in the euro. In contrast, TMG and Lloyds are less optimistic, with lower targets around 1.1447 and 1.1331, respectively, highlighting a division among market participants regarding potential euro strength.
Recent revisions indicate a broad range of views, with UBS markedly adjusting their forecast upward to 1.2000 for March 2026. This contrasts with updates from BofA and SocGen, who maintain targets at 1.1700, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about eurozone economic resilience. For further insights, refer to /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-22.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1300 resistance level in EUR/USD as a critical marker for potential pullbacks. Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings will be pivotal, as tightening could reinforce dollar dominance. Our consensus target remains at 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could occur if the ECB signals a more aggressive tightening pace or if unexpected economic data shifts market sentiment favorably towards the euro. Additionally, a substantial drop in energy prices might bolster euro confidence.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
How we cover this story
French fiscal deterioration and political risk are now exerting visible pressure on EUR/USD technicals; watch for further ER/USD breaks if domestic political clarity fails to materialize.
French fiscal stress and widening OAT-Bund spreads create tail risk for EUR/USD support, with 1.1000 now in play if political uncertainty deepens before 2027.
French fiscal concerns risk capping EUR upside despite near-term technical strength; watch for policy response impact on EUR/USD support levels.
The French-German 10-year spread is the key gauge: MUFG’s scenarios put it at about 170 basis points in its base case and above 200 in a crisis, levels last associated with the euro zone debt crisis. EUR/USD has been tracking the two-year swap spread between the euro and the doll
Articles Rates Spark: US and France like ships passing in the night at 5% Published 16:47 Rates Spark Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The US 10yr yield gapped back below 5% with some conviction. We're not convinced it keeps on going. M
Articles French business confidence defies the turmoil for now Published 09:28 France Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download October’s unexpected rebound in business confidence is good news, particularly for industry. But the survey doe
EUR/USD spot sits 3.36% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.135 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB rate path.
EUR/USD trades 3.17% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.135-wide dispersion range that signals deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB policy path.
EUR/USD spot sits 3.37% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish despite the pair's failure to rally.