EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strong recovery from 100-day MA ahead of US NFP data
The EUR/USD pair has shown a robust recovery off its 100-day moving average, positioning itself at 1.1446 ahead of the crucial US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data release. This bounce back indicates renewed confidence among investors, suggesting the potential for upward movement in the exchange rate. As analysts scrutinize the NFP figures, market participants are keen to gauge their implications for the US dollar's strength and overall economic sentiment.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across multiple firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper end of the forecast range at 1.2000 and Lloyds at the lower end at 1.1200. The current spot rate reflects a pivotal moment as it significantly crosses the 100-day MA, which might influence traders' sentiment going into the NFP data.
How firms align
Firms like Morgan Stanley and RBC are advocating for a more bullish perspective, anticipating targets of 1.2000 and 1.1600, respectively, as reflected in their latest reports. In contrast, Stanchart portrays a more conservative view with a target of 1.1400 for Mar26, indicating a divergence in expectations among institutions.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen an upward adjustment from Morgan Stanley and UBS, both now pitching at 1.2000 for March 2026. Our research cited in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-03 outlines the macroeconomic context influencing these targets, particularly ahead of major economic releases.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD rebounding off 100-day MA indicates potential bullish momentum.
- 02Investors should watch the upcoming US NFP for directional cues on the pair.
- 03Current consensus suggests a perspective range around 1.1700 to 1.2000.
- 04Heightened volatility expected as market digests labor market data.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the NFP release closely, as any significant deviation from expectations could lead to sharp moves in the EUR/USD. A break above 1.1500 may reinforce bullish sentiment towards our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A disappointing NFP figure could reverse market sentiment, pushing the EUR/USD back towards the 100-day MA support. Additionally, any dovish signals from the Fed regarding interest rate policy could further strain the dollar's strength against the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: EUR/USD head towards 1.1700
EUR/USD approaching 1.1700 suggests weakening eurozone fundamentals or USD strength momentum; monitor break below 1.17 for potential trend acceleration.
Euro gains against US Dollar as Waller tempers Fed rate-hike bets
Fed Governor Waller's dovish commentary on rate hike trajectory pressures near-term USD support and extends rally in EUR/USD.