Morning briefing: EUR/USD head towards 1.1700
The EUR/USD pair is inching towards the critical 1.1700 level, driven by market adjustments to current economic indicators and potential ECB policy shifts. Recent forecasts are increasingly bullish on the euro, suggesting that the pair's trajectory may reflect broader sentiment around European economic recovery. This upward momentum is significant as it could signal a trend realignment should the consensus strengthen further.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with RBC marking the upper boundary at 1.2000 and Stanchart at the lower end with 1.1400. FXStreet's analysis aligns closely with this upper target, reflecting a more optimistic outlook by several key institutions.
How firms align
Firms like ING and Nomura share a target of 1.1700 for March 2026, aligning well with the current market sentiment presented by FXStreet. Conversely, Rabobank and Danske Bank project more conservative figures, with targets of 1.1759 and 1.1100 respectively, illustrating a divergence in outlook based on varying economic assessments. Further details can be found in our reporting on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-03.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show UBS raising its March 2026 target to 1.2000, while Morgan Stanley also leans bullish at 1.2000, indicating rising confidence among market participants. This sentiment aligns with multiple analyses, including insights on ECB policy shifts that affect the EUR/USD pair dynamics as discussed in our /research/ecb-decision-preview-2026-09-10.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD eyes the 1.1700 mark, indicating bullish sentiment among analysts.
- 02Positioning signals suggest ongoing upward momentum for the EUR.
- 03Key upcoming economic indicators, including ECB decisions, could fuel further moves.
- 04A failure to maintain the bullish trend could re-invoke lower targets.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1700 level; a sustained break above could encourage bullish positions aligned with the consolidated forecast. Additionally, the September 10th ECB meeting could serve as a crucial inflection point for market sentiment.
Risks to this view
Any dramatic shift in ECB policy or poor economic data from the Eurozone could reverse this trend sharply, particularly if the pair fails to stabilize above the 1.1700 resistance level.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strong recovery from 100-day MA ahead of US NFP data
Euro gains against US Dollar as Waller tempers Fed rate-hike bets
Fed Governor Waller's dovish commentary on rate hike trajectory pressures near-term USD support and extends rally in EUR/USD.