EUR/USD Price Forecast: Turns broadly sideways below 20-day EMA
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at 1.1434, showing a tendency to move sideways beneath the 20-day EMA. This technical setup suggests limited upward momentum, aligning with the broader sentiment that the euro may struggle to regain strength in the near term. Various forecasts reflect divergence, particularly with consistent bearish targets from firms like Citi while others, such as Commerzbank, maintain a more optimistic outlook. The market's current positioning indicates that traders should brace for further consolidation until more definitive directional signals emerge.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the upper bound (1.1900) and Citi at the lower (1.1300). This reflects a range of expectations as firms adjust their positions amidst ongoing market uncertainties.
How firms align
Despite the current divergence, firms like Goldman and Scotiabank are relatively aligned with the headline's cautious sentiment, projecting targets of 1.1800 and 1.1734, respectively. Conversely, Citi's bearish view at 1.1300 for March 2026 illustrates a more pessimistic outlook in line with the recent consolidation trends. More details can be found in our /reports/citi and /reports/goldman pages.
What the data shows
Recent revisions show Citi has adjusted their March 2026 target down to 1.1300, reflecting a more bearish stance. Meanwhile, firms like MUFG and Scotiabank have slightly raised their targets, signaling mixed sentiments across the board. For a deeper analysis, refer to our insights at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trades at 1.1434, hovering below the 20-day EMA.
- 02Expect limited directional moves as markets await clearer signals.
- 03Key levels to monitor include the 1.1300 target from Citi as a bearish benchmark.
- 04Market caution may persist until upcoming economic data releases.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 1.1400 psychological level closely as a potential breakout point. The upcoming ECB meeting and U.S. economic data releases could further influence market sentiment and positioning ahead of the March 2026 consensus forecast.
Risks to this view
A sudden shift in U.S. economic data or a more aggressive ECB response could invalidate the current bearish outlook, especially if the euro breaches the 1.1500 resistance level, prompting shifts in trader positioning.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro Summer range holds against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Euro: Soft tone against US Dollar with stable ECB expectations – Scotiabank
ECB's hold pattern removes upside catalyst for EUR/USD near-term, favoring USD strength on rate differential persistence.
Euro: Resilient data backs range rebound against US Dollar – MUFG
Strong eurozone data supports EUR/USD recovery within established range; watch for breakout confirmation above recent resistance levels.