EUR/USD Price Forecast: Weakens to near 1.1400 as ECB hike bets recede, bearish vibe prevails
The recent shift in EUR/USD towards the 1.1400 mark reflects diminished expectations around European Central Bank (ECB) rate hikes, cultivating a bearish sentiment surrounding the euro. As traders recalibrate their outlook, the lack of forthcoming dovish maneuvers from the ECB could constrain the euro's recovery potential in the near term. This backdrop underscores market sensitivity to ECB communication and rates trajectory, which may further pressure EUR/USD.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our latest consensus for EUR/USD stands at 1.1700 (median across 11 firms), with UBS at the top end (1.2000) and Citi at the lower bound (1.1300). The positioning aligns with the broader market, which has recently highlighted diverging views on the euro's resilience against a stronger dollar.
How firms align
Firms like JPMorgan and Goldman maintain bullish forecasts of 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively for March 2026, showing divergence from the bearish tones highlighted by the latest EUR/USD price forecast. Conversely, Citi's projection of 1.1300 indicates a more cautious stance that aligns with the current bearish sentiment in the market, as detailed in our /reports/citi.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from ScotiaBank shifted its Mar26 target to 1.1734, indicating a slightly less bearish outlook. Additionally, our published research, /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, suggests that current pricing sits around 4.82% below the Dec-26 consensus of 1.20, further emphasizing the ongoing bearish sentiment.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD declining towards 1.1400 amid receding ECB hike expectations.
- 02Traders eye ECB communications; dovish signals could deepen euro's decline.
- 03Consensus target for EUR/USD sits at 1.1700; fluctuations expected.
- 04Firm forecasts show mixed signals; watch for potential corrections.
Market implications
Next, market participants should monitor for EUR/USD reactions around the 1.1400 level, alongside upcoming ECB communications. The consensus target of 1.1700 indicates that the overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, despite recent bearish pressures.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if the ECB transitions to a more hawkish posture, unexpectedly increasing rate hike bets. Additionally, stronger-than-expected economic data from the eurozone could also prompt a shift away from the current bearish sentiment toward the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro trims losses against the US Dollar, but Fed rate-hike bets keep gains in check.
Persistent Fed rate-hike expectations limit EUR/USD upside despite intraday euro recovery, suggesting USD support remains intact on policy divergence.
Euro: Resistance at 1.1450 caps upside against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD facing technical resistance at 1.1450 suggests limited upside for euro shorts until level breaks.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Looks to extend intraday descent below 1.1400 on firmer USD
Technical breakdown below 1.1400 signals USD strength; watch for continuation toward next support levels on technical invalidation of higher lows.
Euro: Political and growth risks point lower against US Dollar – HSBC
HSBC identifies structural euro weakness from political and growth headwinds, supporting USD strength in medium term.
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