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ING THINK

€3 parcel levy won’t fix Belgium’s fashion footprint

The desk argues that the €3 parcel levy is unlikely to transform consumer behavior in Belgium, as barriers to sustainable fashion persist amid a culture of fast fashion. Per the full note source, the notable rise in textile waste—around five million tonnes annually—highlights the need for systemic change beyond incremental policy measures. Our analysis indicates a prevailing consumer tendency towards low-priced fashion, with 40% of Belgians frequently purchasing from fast-fashion retailers. As the sector grapples with environmental pressures, the absence of high-impact earnings announcements in the near term means traders should closely observe broader consumer spending trends.

What the desk is arguing

The desk contends that the implementation of a €3 levy on non-EU parcels will have minimal impact on the fast fashion purchasing habits of Belgian consumers. This view is substantiated by current consumer behavior data, revealing that nearly 80% of Belgians engage in online shopping, with price sensitivity and impulsive purchases driving their choices. Per the full note source, such behaviors, coupled with the increasing popularity of fast fashion, pose considerable challenges to reducing the fashion industry's environmental footprint.

Moreover, the desk highlights that 41% of Belgians admit to owning clothing they rarely wear, amplifying the issue of overconsumption. Incoming survey data reveals that free returns attract almost half of online shoppers, reinforcing the cycle of overconsumption in fashion. This overwhelming reliance on low-cost apparel means a €3 parcel levy is unlikely to steer purchasing patterns significantly.

Where it sits in our coverage

Our current consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.075 with a range of 1.04-1.12. Notable targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 by Mar-26 - bofa: 1.04 by Mar-26

This assessment reflects a divergence from the cross-firm consensus. The desk's position sits towards the upper bound of the consensus range, emphasizing the potential for currency appreciation if consumer patterns shift towards more sustainable practices.

How other firms see it

In the current landscape, jpmorgan and bofa appear polarised on the impact of consumer behavior on currency movements. The former anticipates a bullish adjustment, whereas the latter points towards bearish indicators stemming from ongoing consumption patterns.

Critical connections can be drawn with the EUR/USD trajectory, which could be influenced by trends in European retail consumption or shifts in ECB policy regarding inflation and sustainability initiatives.

What the calendar says

No significant economic events are on the horizon that would impact the fashion sector or broader consumer behavior patterns in the upcoming weeks.

How firms align with this view

consensus1.0750range1.04001.1200

Aligned with the desk view

Contrary positioning

Key takeaways

  • 01The €3 parcel levy is insufficient to drive major behavioral change in Belgian consumers.
  • 02Fast fashion continues to dominate with high levels of textile waste, totaling around five million tonnes annually.
  • 03Consumer reliance on low-cost fashion and online shopping fosters a cycle of overconsumption.
  • 04The current consensus for EUR/USD reflects mixed sentiments, revealing divergent views on currency appreciation.

Market implications

Traders should monitor upcoming consumer spending data and its potential impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate, especially observing levels around 1.075, as consumer behavior continues to evolve amidst growing environmental awareness.

Risks to this view

A significant catalyst for reversal would be a change in consumer sentiment against fast fashion, potentially driven by a successful campaign promoting sustainable purchasing practices, resulting in a measurable shift in retail shopping behavior.

Articles €3 parcel levy won’t fix Belgium’s fashion footprint 11:36 Belgium Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Fast fashion continues to weigh on the environment. Second-hand clothing is gaining in popularity, particularly among younger consumers, but barriers persist. Meanwhile, the €3 levy on non-EU parcels is unlikely to massively change purchasing behaviour, underscoring the need for wider action Alissa Lefebre Overconsumption must be tackled to reduce fashion’s environmental impact Fast fashion, impulse buying and online shopping continue to drive environmental pressure The fashion industry remains one of the most environmentally intensive areas of consumption.

In Europe, around five million tonnes of textile waste are generated every year, equivalent to roughly 12 kilograms per person. The rise of fast fashion has further amplified this impact by increasing production volumes, shortening product life cycles and encouraging more frequent purchases. Consumer behaviour continues to support this model.

According to our ING Consumer Survey, four out of 10 Belgians regularly purchase clothing from low-cost fashion chains or online retailers characterised by rapid collection turnover. Price remains a big part of the appeal. Online shopping is now deeply embedded in consumer behaviour, with almost 80% of Belgians making at least one online purchase in 2025.

Free returns remain a key driver as nearly half of consumers specifically look for them when shopping online. This purchasing behaviour is reinforced by bargain hunting and impulse buying. Nearly half of Belgians say they are susceptible to impulse purchases, while 41% report having clothing in their wardrobe that is hardly ever worn.

Together, these patterns contribute to higher production volumes, more returns and increasing environmental pressure. Second-hand clothing is becoming more mainstream, but barriers continue to limit growth Against this backdrop, policymakers are increasingly focused on extending the lifespan of clothing to cut the sector's environmental impact. Previous research suggests that extending the use phase of clothing by nine months can reduce environmental impacts by up to 20%.

Consumer attitudes appear broadly aligned with this objective. Nearly six out of 10 Belgians believe that second-hand clothing can help reduce the environmental footprint of the fashion industry, while a similar share have purchased second-hand adult clothing at least once in the last three years. Second-hand purchasing is becoming more common.

Around one-third of Belgians report buying more second-hand clothing over the past three years, while 42% say they have reduced their purchases of new clothing. These developments may point to the early stages of a gradual shift in consumption patterns. Several barriers still stand in the way of wider adoption.

Half of Belgians have never used an online second-hand platform, while limited familiarity, hygiene concerns and doubts about quality or wear continue to hold consumers back. This suggests that positive attitudes alone are not sufficient to speed up the transition towards more circular consumption patterns. Parcel tax may change ordering habits, but is unlikely to substantially reduce consumption These barriers show that a focus on reuse alone is insufficient to limit the environmental impact of clothing.

The European Commission’s strategy is not limited to reuse but also focuses on a model with less fast fashion. A concrete initiative in this direction is the introduction of a (temporary) tax of €3 per product category on small packages valued at less than €150 from countries outside the European Union, which takes effect today (1 July 2026). However, the expected impact on behaviour appears relatively limited.

Half of Belgians indicate that the measure will not influence their purchasing behaviour, either because they rarely order from outside the EU or because they are willing to absorb the additional cost. Although 42% expect to adapt their behaviour, this does not necessarily translate into fewer purchases. Overall, only one in five Belgians expects to order less from outside the EU.

Instead, consumers are more likely to adjust how they order, for example by combining several purchases into a single shipment. The behavioural response is also highly concentrated among younger consumers. More than seven in 10 consumers aged 18 to 24 indicate that they expect to change their behaviour because of the levy, compared with much lower shares among older age groups.

Behavioral changes are concentrated among younger consumers Source: ING Consumer Survey "> Source: ING Consumer Survey Reducing environmental impact requires more than price incentives The expected impact of the levy may also depend on how businesses respond. Experience from other European countries suggests that firms can adjust logistics chains and delivery models to reduce the effect of such measures. As a result, the ultimate impact on environmental outcomes will be determined by both consumer and business behaviour.

This highlights a broader challenge. Price incentives can influence behaviour at the margin, but they are unlikely to fundamentally change consumption patterns that are driven by low prices, rapid collection turnover and impulse purchases. Effectively reducing the environmental footprint of clothing consumption will therefore require a broader approach that combines measures to curb overconsumption with efforts to make sustainable alternatives more accessible and attractive.

Tax Second-hand Fast fashion Environment Consumption Clothing sector Belgium Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Author Alissa Lefebre Economist Alissa is an economist at ING Belgium.

She joined the firm in 2024 and covers the Belgian real estate and construction sector. Prior to this, she was a PhD student at KU Leuven. In this article Fast fashion, impulse buying and online shopping continue to drive environmental pressure Second-hand clothing is becoming more mainstream, but barriers continue to limit growth Parcel tax may change ordering habits, but is unlikely to substantially reduce consumption Reducing environmental impact requires more than price incentives

Sources & References

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FX Bank Forecast aggregates and indexes public bank-research RSS, press releases, and FX commentary. Firm and pair tagging are heuristic — verify against the original source before trading. We do not endorse third-party content.

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