EUR/USD remains under pressure as the Fed turns more active
The EUR/USD pair is witnessing sustained pressure as it trends towards its fifth consecutive weekly decline, attributed to a more hawkish stance from the Fed, which continues to bolster dollar strength. Currently trading around 1.1149, this level signifies a battle against slowing selling momentum and reflects market participants' cautious sentiment towards the euro's resilience. This prolonged weakness against a backdrop of US monetary policy shifts underscores the diverging monetary trajectories influencing FX flows, making further movements in this pair critical for traders.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1500 (median across 12 firms), with CIBC at the upper bound (1.2200) and abnamro at the lower (1.1284). The current trading level implies a significant gap from this median, indicative of bearish sentiment surrounding the euro.
How firms align
Firms like RBC and Mizuho are positioning towards the stronger side for the euro in the longer term, targeting 1.1700 for March and June 2026. In contrast, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) is notably more aggressive with its estimates, suggesting a target of 1.1866 by March, which aligns somewhat with the renewed skepticism toward euro strength highlighted in the source article.
What the data shows
Recent revision updates from firms like Standard Chartered push the March EUR target modestly down to 1.1400, aligning more closely with the bearish sentiment from the current market dynamics. For deeper insights, see our research on the broader outlook and consensus in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-29.
How firms align with this view
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1149 reflects significant bearish pressure on the euro.
- 02Watch for potential rebounds around key support levels near 1.11.
- 03Fed's hawkish tones could precipitate further losses in the euro beyond Q4.
- 04Market positioning suggests continued market volatility ahead.
Market implications
Focus on the upcoming ECB meeting on October 29 and any shifts in policy signaling. A break below current levels may reinforce bearish positions, while a bounce could challenge the consensus target of 1.1500.
Risks to this view
A reversal could occur if the ECB hints at a more aggressive path towards rate hikes, substantially altering the current trajectory and providing support to the euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.65
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains to near 1.1200, while staying below key technical resistance
ECB hawkish pause supports EUR near 1.1190; watch for breakout above key resistance for directional conviction.
Euro: ECB guidance could keep range intact against US Dollar – DBS
ECB's likely hold with December hike signal maintains current EUR/USD positioning; no material shift in rate differential or forward guidance expected.
Euro: Downside risks persist against US Dollar - Societe Generale
Fed's pause at 3.75%-4.00% supports USD stability; EUR/USD vulnerability to lower levels signals rate differential remains the marginal driver.