EUR/USD: Sellers fail to penetrate 9th-order demand massif
In the latest action, the EUR/USD keeps trading within a robust demand area despite sellers' attempts to push lower. The headline indicates that the 9th-order demand massif remains intact, suggesting strong buying interest beneath the current spot level of 1.1253. This support can prove crucial as the market continues to navigate central bank policy divergences, particularly with the ECB's stance under scrutiny. Maintaining above this demand level is pivotal for bulls looking to build momentum amid recent volatility.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target at 1.1700 (median across various firms) contrasts sharply with the current spot of 1.1253, indicating a notable divergence from market expectations. The range across firms spans from as low as 1.1200 (TMGM) to as high as 1.1866 (CIBC), underlining a varied outlook on the euro's performance against the dollar.
How firms align
Rabobank and Nomura's projections for March 2026 point towards 1.1759 and 1.1700 respectively, aligning well with the current demand narrative. In contrast, TMGM and Mizuho have set lower targets at 1.1447 and 1.1300, suggesting a more cautious outlook relative to the prevailing support dynamics noted in the headline. Firms like RBC are also projecting a more optimistic path towards 1.1700 by March 2026, reinforcing the demand thesis.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions, such as those from UOB, indicate a slight upward adjustment for March 2026 targets to 1.1536, yet still keeping a broader near-term outlook in check. Our ongoing research highlights that the EUR/USD is currently trading 3.4% below consensus targets, as seen in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-12.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD spot at 1.1253 remains above 9th-order support.
- 02Strong demand at current levels is crucial for bullish sentiment.
- 03Watch for potential shifts if levels below 1.1200 are tested.
- 04Current forecasts imply upward potential yet highlight market caution.
Market implications
Traders should closely monitor the 1.1200 level, as a breach could signal bearish sentiment. Additionally, upcoming ECB meetings could provide further clarity and might drive the EUR/USD back towards consensus targets near 1.1700. Positioning ahead of data releases will be key.
Risks to this view
Should the EUR/USD break decisively below the 1.1200 support level, we could see a rapid shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially triggering a repricing of near-term forecasts. Strong USD data or a hawkish Fed commentary could be catalysts for such a reversal.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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