FX Talking: Forecast table
The desk expresses a bullish outlook on the euro amidst resilient economic data from the Eurozone. This follows the latest forecasts from ING, which indicate a potential upward trajectory for the euro, suggesting that the divergence in monetary policy could continue to favor the single currency. Per the full note , the team highlights that the ECB's hawkish stance may be substantially supported by upcoming inflation data, thereby enhancing the euro's strength against the USD. The consensus target for the EUR/USD is set at 1.075, signaling a moderate but positive trend for the currency pair in the longer term.
What the desk is arguing
The desk is positioning itself bullishly on the euro, anticipating that resilient economic metrics will bolster the currency's value. Per the full note , EUR is expected to benefit significantly from the central bank's hawkish monetary policy, especially in light of favorable inflation data that could reinforce this outlook.
Supporting this thesis, the ECB's readiness to potentially raise interest rates further than expected aligns with the current projections for the euro's appreciation against the dollar. This aligns with ING's view that market sentiment is tilting in favor of the euro, especially if key data releases this month indicate robust economic performance.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.075, with the following per-firm targets influencing this position:
This bullish perspective is notably at the upper end of the cross-firm forecasts, particularly aligned with jpmorgan. Such positioning suggests confidence in the euro's resilience relative to the dollar in the medium term.
How other firms see it
There is a general consensus among firms like jpmorgan and citibank that the euro will strengthen, while bofa holds a contrary view anticipating downward pressure.
Traders should also keep an eye on the EUR/USD trend, which often mirrors movements in the USD Index and the upcoming ECB statements, as these will be instrumental in shaping currency trajectories alongside their respective monetary policies.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bullish EUR outlook driven by ECB's hawkish stance and resilient economic data.
- 02ING forecasts suggest upward movement for EUR/USD, reinforcing market sentiment.
- 03Consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.075, indicating potential strength ahead.
Market implications
Watch for the EUR/USD moving towards the 1.075 mark as key economic data releases bolster the euro's position. A sustained trend above this level could solidify the bullish sentiment observed in the market.
Risks to this view
Key risks include any unexpected dovish tones from the ECB or weaker-than-expected economic data, which could rapidly reverse bullish sentiment and challenge the euro's strength.
Articles FX Talking: Forecast table Published 11:43 FX Talking Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The latest FX forecasts from our team Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts "> Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts FX Talking Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives. The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Chris Turner Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE Chris is Global Head of Markets and Regional Head of Research for UK & CEE.
Together with his team, he provides short and medium-term FX recommendations for ING's corporate and… Francesco Pesole FX Strategist Francesco is an FX Strategist and has been with the firm since May 2019. His main focus is on the G10 space and, in particular, on European and commodity currencies. He began his career at Credit…
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