EUR/USD under pressure as fresh downside risks emerge
The EUR/USD pair is currently facing downward pressure amid emerging downside risks, indicative of potential shifts in market sentiment. This situation arises as traders reassess their positions ahead of key economic indicators and decisions, including those from the ECB and Fed later this month. The recent sentiment scoring reflects a bullish outlook on the USD and a bearish stance on the EUR, which could amplify current technical vulnerabilities in the pair.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with the most aggressive stance from Commerzbank at the upper end (1.1900) and a more cautious view from TMG at the lower end (1.1447). The perspectives from firms like Goldman and BofA occupy the middle ground, with targets at 1.1800 and 1.1700 respectively.
How firms align
Goldman and Deutsche Bank are bullish on the pair in the short term, with targets of 1.1800 and 1.1800 respectively by March 2026. However, firms like BofA take a more conservative view, predicting slightly lower targets which contrast with prevailing market sentiment. This underscores the divergence in expectations among industry players as outlined in our research on this pair, notably /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-26.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have seen BofA adjusting their Mar26 target to 1.1700 from a previous 1.2200, reflecting a shift in outlook. The latest published insights highlight that current levels still show a marked divergence from forward-looking consensus estimates, especially as noted in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-25.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD under pressure, currently at 1.1419.
- 02Focus on upcoming ECB and Fed events for potential shifts.
- 03Downside target center around 1.1400 based on intermediary forecasts.
Market implications
Monitoring the 1.1400 support level will be critical as it aligns with firm targets and prevailing sentiment. The upcoming Fed rate decision on July 29 should also provide clarity, particularly as it correlates with our consensus target of 1.1700.
Risks to this view
A solid break below the 1.1400 support could lead to a more bearish sentiment and necessitate a reassessment of targets. Conversely, positive data from the Eurozone might invalidate this negative outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: EUR/USD may attempt a slow rise towards 1.1450-1.1500
Technical formation suggests EUR/USD upside potential toward 1.1450–1.1500 if resistance breaks; watch for macro confirmation.
Euro: Choppy range view holds against US Dollar – Rabobank
Euro: ECB hawkish but EUR still disadvantaged against US Dollar – OCBC
ECB hawkish messaging insufficient to offset USD structural advantage; EUR/USD likely remains pressured despite policy tightening.