Morning briefing: EUR/USD may attempt a slow rise towards 1.1450-1.1500
EUR/USD is currently positioned at 1.1419, with a potential upside toward the 1.1450 to 1.1500 range as suggested by technical patterns. The prevailing sentiment is bullish on the euro against the dollar, supported by the recent consensus targeting higher levels in the coming months. A move above 1.1450 could confirm this bullish outlook, making it crucial for traders to monitor macroeconomic data for validation.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1525 (median across 11 firms), with Commerzbank at the upper end (1.1900) and TMG at the lower end (1.1447). FXStreet suggests a potential move toward the 1.1450-1.1500 range, aligning closely with our own targets for the near term.
How firms align
Goldman Sachs (1.1800) and Nomura (1.1700) share a more bullish stance compared to the FXStreet view, while BofA's position at 1.1700 is similar to the prevailing consensus. This contrasts with TMG's more conservative target of 1.1447, indicating a wider range of expectations among the firms.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from BofA and Deutsche Bank underscore a bullish sentiment, with BofA revising its March target to 1.1700. This supports the current consensus and aligns with our findings in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-26, indicating a positive euro trajectory amidst ongoing ECB discussions.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at 1.1419 may push toward 1.1450-1.1500 if upward momentum continues.
- 02Focus on breaking resistance levels; a breach could invite buying interest.
- 03Key macroeconomic data and upcoming ECB decisions may act as catalysts.
- 04Bearish outlooks remain from low-end targets (1.1447) from some firms.
Market implications
Traders should focus on the 1.1450 level as a critical resistance point. A sustained close above this level could signal further gains towards 1.1500. Additionally, upcoming UK inflation data could influence broader market sentiment and positioning ahead of key central bank meetings.
Risks to this view
A stronger-than-expected USD through favorable data releases, or any hawkish signals from the Fed, could invalidate the bullish EUR/USD view. Additionally, a significant lead against Eurozone data could reignite bearish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
EUR/USD under pressure as fresh downside risks emerge
EUR/USD weakness from emerging downside risks signals potential pullback toward support; monitor headline catalyst timing for technical confirmation.
Euro: Choppy range view holds against US Dollar – Rabobank
Euro: ECB hawkish but EUR still disadvantaged against US Dollar – OCBC
ECB hawkish messaging insufficient to offset USD structural advantage; EUR/USD likely remains pressured despite policy tightening.
Euro: Rate support seen fading gradually against US Dollar – MUFG
ECB rate support cycle nearing completion signals structural headwind for EUR/USD; widening Fed-ECB rate differential favors dollar positioning.
Bank desks on this topic
FX Daily: Pre-FOMC positioning may favour the dollar
Articles FX Daily: Pre-FOMC positioning may favour the dollar Published 07:42 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The Fed should keep rates on hold on Wednesday, but Chair Kevin Warsh’s opposition to forward guidance may encourage
FOMC preview: Fed to stay on hold after June’s hawkish shift
Articles FOMC preview: Fed to stay on hold after June’s hawkish shift Published 09:41 United States Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download While the recent surge in oil prices has led markets to increase their expectations of a Federal Reserv
FX Daily: Summer complacency questioned
Articles FX Daily: Summer complacency questioned Published 08:13 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Energy price rises and the likely central bank response have triggered increased volatility across the bond, equity and FX space. This
Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot: Week of July 26, 2026
EUR/USD spot at 1.1371 sits 1.34% below the 30-firm Dec-26 consensus of 1.1525, with a 0.20 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the path ahead.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1371, Median Target 1.16 — Week of July 25, 2026
EUR/USD trades nearly 2% below the 29-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.20 dispersion range exposing deep disagreement on Fed-ECB divergence.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.137, Median Target 1.16 — Week of July 24, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 1.98% below the 29-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.20 dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the Fed-ECB endgame.