Euro: Correction seen near key averages against US Dollar – Societe Generale
Societe Generale's analysis suggests a correction for the Euro is imminent as it nears key averages against the US Dollar. The current EUR/USD spot at 1.1446 is just marginally below the median consensus target of 1.1700 by March 2026, indicating market expectations are somewhat bullish despite recent fluctuations. This positioning is critical as traders assess potential shifts in central bank policies and economic data releases that could drive the Euro higher.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target stands at 1.1700 (median across 9 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Stanchart at the lower end (1.1400). In contrast to Societe Generale's bullish outlook, some firms forecast a more subdued recovery.
How firms align
Morgan Stanley and CIBC support the bullish sentiment with targets of 1.2000 and 1.1866, respectively, as seen in their recent outlooks. Conversely, firms like TMG and Stanchart forecast less optimism, suggesting a more cautious approach given broader market uncertainty, as detailed in their respective reports.
What the data shows
Several firms have recently adjusted their forecasts, with BofA setting its March target at 1.1700 while revising its Dec26 forecast to 1.1500. Our recent research indicates a growing gap between the consensus and spot rates, reflecting traders' uncertainty about ECB policies. See more in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-09-25.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Euro poised for potential correction as it aligns with key technical averages.
- 02Watch for shifts in ECB policy that may impact Euro valuations.
- 03Immediate resistance noted near 1.1700; key support at 1.1400.
- 04Market sentiment cautiously bullish; volatility expected in lead-up to upcoming economic data.
Market implications
Going forward, traders should closely monitor the EUR/USD around the 1.1700 mark, as significant economic releases from the Eurozone are expected this quarter. Any sustained move above this level could signal a stronger bullish trend aligned with our consensus numbers.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this outlook could stem from unexpectedly hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve or an escalation in geopolitical tensions that weigh on the Euro. Additionally, weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic data could undermine current bullish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Firms mentioned
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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