EUR/USD Price Forecast: At make or a break near 1.1350
EUR/USD is currently at a pivotal level, trading at 1.1384, just above the critical resistance/support line of 1.1350 as noted by FXStreet. With the market sentiment on the USD remaining neutral, this range presents a significant battleground for traders. Any sustained movement past this level could define the directional bias for the pair moving into the end of the month, especially as various firms are forecasting divergence with targets spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000 for the medium-term. Investors are closely watching upcoming economic data and central bank signals that could provide further clarity on market direction.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across 12 firms), with Morgan Stanley at the upper bound (1.2000) and Lloyds at the lower end (1.1200). This positions us significantly above the current spot, suggesting bullish sentiment among market participants despite the immediate technical concern around 1.1350.
How firms align
Several firms align closely with the bullish outlook suggested by the current spot, including SocGen at 1.1700 and RBC at 1.1700 for March 2026. Notably, Morgan Stanley holds the highest target at 1.2000, indicating strong confidence in the euro's potential upside. In contrast, Danske Bank's lower target of 1.1100 for December 2026 suggests an alternative bearish view that contrasts with the overall consensus.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions from BoFA, which raised their March target to 1.1700, align with the bullish sentiment surrounding the euro. Our published research, such as /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path, touches upon the ongoing divergence between market sentiment and the consensus targets, reinforcing the analysis of levels to watch around 1.1350.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD at a pivotal 1.1350 resistance - traders focus on this technical level.
- 02Market sentiment is currently neutral but bullish forecasts dominate for coming months.
- 03Higher targets from firms like Morgan Stanley (1.2000) signal strong upside potential.
- 04Watch upcoming economic indicators that could sway the euro's direction.
Market implications
Moving forward, watch for a decisively bullish breakout above 1.1350 to confirm upward momentum targeting our consensus at 1.1700. Additionally, key economic data releases could provide crucial direction, especially those indicating changes in the interest rate landscape in Europe or the US. The upcoming ECB meeting may also act as a catalyst for movement in the pair.
Risks to this view
A failure to hold above 1.1350 could invalidate the bullish view and complicate the outlook. Key downside risks include unexpectedly dovish comments from the ECB or stronger-than-expected US employment data that might bolster the dollar's appeal. A drop below 1.1200 could signal a bearish shift.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Morning briefing: EUR/USD can test 1.1300
Technical bias toward 1.1300 suggests EUR/USD upside momentum; watch for resistance confirmation or breakdown below support.
Euro: Decline nears support zone against US Dollar – Scotiabank
EUR/USD approaching technical support level signals potential capitulation point for mean-reversion trades or break-of-support acceleration.
Euro: Downside risks for EUR against US Dollar – Rabobank
Rabobank identifies structural downside risks to EUR/USD; USD strength thesis warrants position review for long-EUR portfolios.