Euro: Dollar strength pushes EUR/USD below 1.1400 – Danske Bank
Euro dips below 1.1400 as dollar strength surges, reiterating Danske Bank's bearish view for EUR/USD in the near term. This movement raises concerns as the Euro appears to struggle against a robust dollar, driven by shifting market dynamics. With the current spot at 1.1500, traders will be monitoring key resistance and support levels closely, given the potential for further downside in the absence of strong Eurozone data.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target now stands at 1.1700 (median across firms), with the highest target set by UBS at 1.2000 and the lowest by Citi at 1.1300. Danske Bank's estimation aligns closely with this bearish movement, adjusting its March target to 1.1866.
How firms align
The bearish outlook from Danske Bank, reflected in their recent forecast revisions, contrasts with more optimistic projections from firms like HSBC and Deutsche Bank, who have set their targets at 1.1700 and 1.1800 for March, respectively. Additional insights can be found in our internal reports on these firms.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have indicated a notable shift, with firms like UBS forecasting 1.2000 for March. Notably, Danske Bank’s downward revision for the March target reinforces the caution around EUR/USD, as captured in our related insight /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD dips below 1.1400, breaking key support levels.
- 02Traders should monitor upcoming Eurozone data releases for potential volatility.
- 03Danske Bank’s March forecast revised to 1.1866 amid dollar strength.
Market implications
Traders should watch for a potential retest of 1.1400 as a psychological threshold. The upcoming Eurozone economic reports will also play a crucial role in determining market direction, particularly in relation to our consensus target.
Risks to this view
A reversal in the current bearish trend could occur if Eurozone data significantly outperforms expectations or if there is a shift in U.S. monetary policy signaling a weaker dollar. Key meetings or announcements from the ECB could also influence the outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR-JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Stabilising above 1.1300 against US Dollar with risk driver – ING
Euro: Downtrend stretched near 1.1325 against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD downtrend extension suggests oversold conditions near 1.1325; watch for mean reversion or fresh bearish catalyst to determine next directional move.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Rebounds above 1.1350, but outlook stays bearish below key resistance
EUR/USD bounce to 1.1350 lacks conviction; structural bearish bias persists until sustained break above key technical resistance.
Euro: Bearish bias with scope toward 1.12 against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Scotiabank's 1.12 EUR/USD target implies ~2% downside from current levels, signaling institutional conviction on euro weakness relative to dollar strength.
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