Euro: Range-trading bias persists near recent lows against US Dollar – UOB
The Euro remains entrenched in a range-trading pattern near recent lows against the US Dollar, reflecting the prevailing sentiment of USD strength. As suggested by UOB, this exacerbation of the Euro's weakness underscores a broader bearish outlook, especially with consolidation at lower levels. Tactical positioning in favor of the USD appears justified, particularly given that the market has not yet seen a breakout above the key resistance levels.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.1700 for March 2026, with a range of forecasts spanning from 1.1200 to 1.2000 across various firms. Notably, firms like RBC and Nomura lean towards the higher end of the spectrum, while TMGM and Mizuho are more bearish with targets around 1.1300 to 1.1448.
How firms align
Aligning with the prevailing bearish sentiment, UOB has recently updated its forecast to 1.1536 for March 2026, reflecting a cautious approach. In contrast, Investec, also aligned, forecasts a similarly tempered 1.1455 for the same period. For a comprehensive view, see our reports on these forecasts at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-19 and /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-18.
What the data shows
Revisions in recent forecasts from SocGen and Nordea indicate a potential shift in sentiment, with both firms targeting 1.1700 for March 2026. This is a notable deviation from spot levels, reinforcing the idea of an undercurrent in Euro strength that has yet to play out, as seen in our analysis at /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-17.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD located at 1.1253 indicates persistent USD strength.
- 02Focus on tactical USD overweight as range trading persists.
- 03Watch for a breakout above 1.1300 to signal potential reversal in Euro's momentum.
Market implications
Traders should keep an eye on the 1.1200 support level; a breach could signal further downside for the Euro. Upcoming economic data releases from the US could also catalyze movement, so positioning ahead of these events may be prudent. Importantly, our consensus target of 1.1700 suggests a significant discrepancy between market sentiment and long-term forecasts.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this view could occur if the Euro strengthens unexpectedly, buoyed by stronger-than-expected European economic data or a significant shift in ECB policy towards more accommodative measures. A move above the 1.1300 level could invalidate the current bearish stance on the Euro.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: French fiscal risks limit recovery against US Dollar – ING
French fiscal deterioration narrows the EUR/USD support floor as policy uncertainty compounds ECB easing expectations.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Multiple headwinds for Euro backs downside bias
Confluence of euro headwinds suggests tactical EUR/USD weakness with potential for range extension lower.
Euro: Bullish tone persists against US Dollar despite French risks - Scotiabank
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Cross-firm research
EUR/USD Consensus at 1.16 vs Spot 1.1209 — Week of October 20, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 3.37% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish despite the pair's failure to rally.
EUR/USD Consensus vs Spot: Week of October 19, 2026
EUR/USD spot at 1.1212 sits 3.35% below the 31-firm Dec-26 median of 1.16, exposing a consensus that remains structurally bullish on the euro.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1239 vs 1.16 Median, Week of October 18, 2026
EUR/USD spot trades 3.11% below the 31-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.16, with a 0.135 range separating Commerzbank's 1.22 bull case from Citi's 1.085 floor.