Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The recent forecast for the EUR/USD pair indicates a neutral sentiment among analysts, with the currency currently trading at 1.1253. The findings suggest that while there is potential for upward movement, particularly as several firms project targets well above the current spot, there remains a divergence in expectations, with some forecasts significantly lower. This is particularly relevant as the ECB's monetary policy trajectory is a key factor influencing these rates—and any shifts here could reshape the landscape for the pair considerably.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD is 1.1700 for March 2026, indicating an anticipated appreciation from the current spot price. The firm-by-firm spread is notable, with projections ranging from 1.1284 (ABN AMRO) at the lower end to 1.1900 (Commerzbank) at the high end. The range reflects differing views on economic recovery and fiscal policy across firms.
How firms align
Rabobank and Nomura are aligned with a relatively bullish stance, forecasting 1.1759 and 1.1700 respectively for March, positioning them favorably within our consensus range. Conversely, TMGM and Investec present a more cautious assessment with targets as low as 1.1447 and 1.1455, which is considerably closer to the current spot than the consensus, reflecting a divergence in market outlooks.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions have shown some firms, like Nordea, increasing their optimism with targets moving up to 1.1884 for March, while others like ING have downgraded expectations, underlining market uncertainty. See our insights in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-17 for detailed analysis on market sentiment shifts related to ECB policy expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD trading at 1.1253; firms projecting a range up to 1.1900 highlight divergence.
- 02Markets are reacting to monetary policy signals; watch ECB communications closely.
- 03Forecast revisions indicate mixed sentiments with both bullish and bearish adjustments.
- 04Uncertainty persists; gap between consensus and spot prices could present trading opportunities.
Market implications
Key levels to watch include the consensus target of 1.1700 for March 2026 and recent high forecasts that suggest momentum could build if economic indicators align favorably. The coming ECB meetings will be critical in shaping trader sentiment and positioning.
Risks to this view
A shift in ECB policy towards a more hawkish stance or unexpected economic data could invalidate bullish projections, potentially pushing EUR/USD down towards more cautious targets closer to 1.1400.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Recovery capped by French spread tensions against US Dollar – Scotiabank
Widening French sovereign spreads vs. Bunds create a structural ceiling on EUR/USD appreciation, favoring defensive USD positioning.
Euro: Two-phase weakness and recovery prospects against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank identifies structural EUR/USD weakness in near term with recovery potential, suggesting current USD strength may face headwinds once technical phase concludes.
EUR/USD outlook: Weak economic data and fragile political situation likely to cap recovery
Confluence of eurozone growth headwinds and political instability removes support for EUR/USD above 1.10 near-term.