FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 39 institutional desks. No promotion.
The EUR/USD is witnessing a rebound, having shifted the sentiment from bearish to cautiously optimistic as per UOB strategists. Current spot trading at 1.1253 suggests a potential test of key resistance levels ahead, particularly if renewed strength in the Euro continues. This recovery could be pivotal, as the market adjusts to expectations surrounding ECB policy amidst changing economic dynamics.
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently sits at 1.1500 for December 2026, with a median forecast across firms showing a range from 1.1000 (HSBC) to 1.2200 (CIBC). The resilience of the Euro against the Dollar is in contrast with recent bearish sentiments and suggests a reassessment in expectations.
CIBC stands out with a notably bullish revision targeting 1.1866 for March 2026, mirroring some elements of the headline's constructive view. Meanwhile, firms like Investec are more cautious, predicting a modest target of 1.1455 in the same period. These differing positions highlight a divided outlook that is worth monitoring closely.
Recent forecast revisions have indicated a broader shift, with firms like UBS raising their March 2026 target to 1.2000. Our published research from /research/ecb-decision-2026-10-29-recap outlines how the ECB's decision to hold rates steady at 2.50% is reshaping the Euro's trajectory in the near term.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
Focus now turns to the 1.1300 resistance level, which is crucial for confirming bullish momentum. Additionally, the upcoming ECB commentary could provide further direction, particularly since our consensus target sits at 1.1500. Positioning may tighten as traders assess economic signals.
Risks to this view
A shift in this outlook would occur if economic data reveals unexpected weakness in Eurozone metrics or if the ECB communicates a more hawkish stance, prompting a reassessment of likely rate paths. Such developments could quickly reverse the current bullish sentiment.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.55
How we cover this story
EUR/USD rejection at 1.1215 combined with German inflation data event risk suggests near-term USD strength remains intact before key CPI prints.
ECB hawkish pause supports EUR near 1.1190; watch for breakout above key resistance for directional conviction.
ECB's likely hold with December hike signal maintains current EUR/USD positioning; no material shift in rate differential or forward guidance expected.
Fed's pause at 3.75%-4.00% supports USD stability; EUR/USD vulnerability to lower levels signals rate differential remains the marginal driver.
Articles Bank of Japan hits 2% price target Published 08:02 FX Japan Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download In a big day for monetary policy in Japan, the Bank of Japan finally announced it had hit its 2% price target – a target set in 2013.
Articles FX Daily: Time to think about the midterms? Published 07:39 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The ECB sent a clear message yesterday: a December hike is likely. That is providing a more supportive backdrop for the euro ahead
A December “last hike” view mainly affects the euro front end, with Euribor, €STR futures and one- to two-year government bond yields most exposed to shifts in pricing. Capping expectations could reduce volatility further out the curve, while short-dated contracts stay sensitive
On 2026-10-29, the European Central Bank held its policy rate at 2.50%. Here is where the major banks now see the currency heading.
EUR/USD spot sits 2.73% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 range separating the most and least bullish desks.
EUR/USD trades 3.17% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 spread separating Citi's 1.085 floor from Commerzbank's 1.22 ceiling.