Euro retreats from day's high as US Dollar rebounds, German HICP data awaited
The Euro has seen a pullback from earlier highs against the US Dollar today, after struggling to maintain momentum above the 1.1215 mark. While currently trading at approximately 1.1188, the sentiment remains bearish on the Euro in light of upcoming German HICP data, which analysts are closely monitoring for indications of inflation pressures. This context suggests that while the Euro appreciated earlier in the session, near-term dynamics still favor a stronger Dollar as traders position themselves ahead of key inflation releases.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus for the EUR/USD pair currently stands at 1.1500 for December 2026, with substantial divergence reflected in the targets: CIBC projects the highest at 1.2200, while HSBC is notably below at 1.1000. The headline’s bearish sentiment regarding the Euro correlates with the more conservative positions from various firms.
How firms align
Firms such as RBC and BNP Paribas show moderate bullishness, targeting 1.1700 for March 2026, closely mirroring the sentiment of the derived analysis. Meanwhile, BofA positions itself on the contrary end of the spectrum with a lower target of 1.1500 for the same tenor, indicating skepticism about the Euro’s recovery. [See our internal reports for more insights].
What the data shows
Recent revisions from firms like MUFG set the March 2026 target at 1.1800, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook despite the current bearish sentiment towards the Euro. Insights from our recent publication highlight expectations around the ECB's decisions affecting the Euro's trajectory (/research/ecb-decision-2026-10-29-recap).
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD rejection at 1.1215 suggests further downside risks.
- 02Traders eye inflation data as a potential catalyst for movement.
- 03Key resistance at 1.1215 is critical; breaks may signal stronger Dollar.
- 04Market sentiment favors near-term USD strength before CPI prints.
Market implications
The upcoming German HICP data will be pivotal; a result above expectations could bolster USD demand further, putting pressure on the Euro. Watch for EUR/USD levels around 1.1150 to gauge immediate market response, aligning with our consensus target of 1.1500.
Risks to this view
Should the German HICP data surprise to the upside significantly, this could reinvigorate Euro demand, invalidating the prevailing bearish outlook. Additionally, any unexpected dovish signals from the ECB could shift current dynamics rapidly.
Sentiment by currency
USD+EUR JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.35
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Rebound extends toward resistance against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD tactical shift from negative to constructively biased increases probability of probe toward resistance; break of support risks reversion to range.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Holds gains to near 1.1200, while staying below key technical resistance
ECB hawkish pause supports EUR near 1.1190; watch for breakout above key resistance for directional conviction.
Euro: ECB guidance could keep range intact against US Dollar – DBS
ECB's likely hold with December hike signal maintains current EUR/USD positioning; no material shift in rate differential or forward guidance expected.
Euro: Downside risks persist against US Dollar - Societe Generale
Fed's pause at 3.75%-4.00% supports USD stability; EUR/USD vulnerability to lower levels signals rate differential remains the marginal driver.
Bank desks on this topic
Bank of Japan hits 2% price target
Articles Bank of Japan hits 2% price target Published 08:02 FX Japan Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download In a big day for monetary policy in Japan, the Bank of Japan finally announced it had hit its 2% price target – a target set in 2013.
FX Daily: Time to think about the midterms?
Articles FX Daily: Time to think about the midterms? Published 07:39 FX Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download The ECB sent a clear message yesterday: a December hike is likely. That is providing a more supportive backdrop for the euro ahead
ECB to hike once more in December as tighter conditions may not suffice: Deutsche Bank
A December “last hike” view mainly affects the euro front end, with Euribor, €STR futures and one- to two-year government bond yields most exposed to shifts in pricing. Capping expectations could reduce volatility further out the curve, while short-dated contracts stay sensitive
Cross-firm research
European Central Bank held rates at 2.50% — ECB verdict reshapes euro's near-term path
On 2026-10-29, the European Central Bank held its policy rate at 2.50%. Here is where the major banks now see the currency heading.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1186, Median Target 1.15 — Week of October 30, 2026
EUR/USD spot sits 2.73% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 range separating the most and least bullish desks.
EUR/USD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.1136, Median Target 1.15 — Week of October 29, 2026
EUR/USD trades 3.17% below the 32-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.15, with a 0.135 spread separating Citi's 1.085 floor from Commerzbank's 1.22 ceiling.