Experts agree: Weak Dollar backs near-term upside in EUR/USD
The prevailing weakness of the U.S. dollar has garnered widespread consensus among experts, supporting the upside potential for EUR/USD in the near term. As the euro trades at 1.1446, the sentiment analysis indicates a bearish USD stance, which complements the bullish outlook for the euro. This dynamic is especially significant as traders look for technical resistance levels that may be breached if current trends continue, reflecting the market's response to the broader economic signals surrounding the dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target currently stands at 1.1700 for March 26, 2026 (median across 12 firms), with MUFG at the high end of the spectrum anticipating 1.2600 and Lloyds at the lower end with a target of 1.1200. This places our expectations well above the current spot, indicating confidence in further euro appreciation against a weak dollar.
How firms align
Firms such as Morgan Stanley, targeting 1.2000 for March 26, and RBC, which sets their target at 1.1600, clearly reflect the bullish sentiment towards the euro's trajectory. This aligns with the headline's assertion about the weak dollar's support for EUR/USD upside. For detailed forecasts, see our reports on Morgan Stanley and RBC under /reports/morganstanley and /reports/rbc.
What the data shows
Recent revisions indicate Deutsche Bank has raised its target to 1.1800 for March 26, demonstrating an upward adjustment in response to market conditions. Additionally, our research from /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-08-19 highlights ongoing divergence in forecast consensus, emphasizing the strengthening outlook for the euro.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Weak dollar supports near-term upside for EUR/USD, currently at 1.1446.
- 02Keep an eye on technical resistance levels as sentiment shifts bullish.
- 03Expect potential moves towards 1.1700 consensus as traders react to economic signals.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the resistance levels near 1.1700, which aligns with our consensus target. Upcoming economic data from the U.S. could further influence dollar strength and subsequently affect the EUR/USD trajectory.
Risks to this view
Should the Federal Reserve signal a more hawkish stance or unexpectedly strong economic data emerge, it could reverse dollar weakness, putting pressure on the EUR/USD outlook.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.60
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Set to outperform Pound, US Dollar and Yen - Nomura
Nomura's broad EUR outperformance call suggests positioning risk if ECB divergence from Fed/BoE/BoJ rate paths narrows or reverses.
Euro: Gentle upside against US Dollar as greenback softens - ING
USD weakness favors EUR/USD mean reversion; monitor whether softening reflects Fed pivot signals or temporary positioning relief.
Euro: Further upside toward 1.1725 against US Dollar – UOB
Technical target of 1.1725 suggests EUR/USD momentum remains constructive; monitor for resistance breakdown confirmation.