EUR/USD Price Forecast: Approaches 1.1600 as RSI shifts bullish
EUR/USD approaches the 1.1600 mark as bullish sentiment emerges from the RSI indicators, signaling a potential shift in market momentum. While this technical development suggests a near-term appreciation for the euro, our analysis indicates a lack of underlying macroeconomic support for these price movements at current levels. This divergence between technical signals and fundamental factors underscores the need for caution among traders. Observing key factors influencing the eurozone and U.S. monetary policy will be crucial in assessing the sustainability of this momentum.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1700 (median across firms), with Commerzbank at the highest target of 1.1900 and Citi at the low end at 1.1300. The perspective presented by fxstreet aligns closely with the upper part of this range, reflecting optimism echoed by several firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs.
How firms align
Firms are relatively bullish on the euro with Goldman targeting 1.1800 for March 2026 and JPMorgan also adopting a positive stance with a forecast of 1.1800. Both of these targets suggest a degree of alignment with the bullish sentiment indicated in the recently shifted RSI from fxstreet. Meanwhile, Citi maintains a more bearish outlook, forecasting a lower level of 1.1300 for the same period.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions include Goldman upgrading its March target to 1.1800, signaling enhanced confidence in the euro's potential over the coming months. Additionally, our research from July 10 notes that EUR/USD currently trades around 2.4% below our median consensus target of 1.170 for December 2026, highlighting a notable divergence from market expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD nearing 1.1600 indicates a potential short-term bullish shift.
- 02Traders should watch for macro indicators before taking long euro positions.
- 03Near-term resistance seen at 1.1600; breaches could accelerate momentum.
- 04Technical indicators show potential, but fundamental support remains thin.
Market implications
Next, traders should monitor the stability of the euro around the 1.1600 level, particularly in light of upcoming ECB communications and U.S. data releases. If the consensus target of 1.1700 is approached, we may see heightened bullish positioning. Additionally, indicators for risk-on sentiment in broader markets could fuel further euro strength.
Risks to this view
This view could be invalidated if there are unexpected shifts in U.S. economic data or aggressive Federal Reserve measures that strengthen the dollar. Furthermore, any disappointing data from the eurozone could also sharply reverse the bullish trajectory seen in recent weeks.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.40
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Energy risks cap upside against US Dollar – ING
Energy crisis remains structural EUR/USD headwind; supply shocks could force further ECB tightening without offsetting growth gains.
Euro finds support as soft US PPI weighs on US Dollar
Softer-than-expected US PPI reduces Fed rate-hike probability, pressuring USD and supporting EUR/USD on the inflation data miss.
Euro picks up favoured by a weaker US Dollar but remains within previous ranges
EUR/USD strength on USD weakness lacks directional conviction; price consolidation within recent bands suggests limited follow-through potential.