Euro picks up favoured by a weaker US Dollar but remains within previous ranges
The euro is benefiting from a softening US dollar, which has allowed for modest gains against the greenback. However, despite this uptick, the EUR/USD remains entrenched within its recent trading ranges, indicating a lack of conviction for sustained movement. This consolidation phase showcases market participants' hesitance to commit to a clear directional play, especially as economic indicators loom in the backdrop, affecting both currencies. Currently positioned at 1.1434, the market is keenly watching for catalysts that could drive a breakout from this trading band.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target is set at 1.1700 (median across firms), with a range spanning from 1.1000 at Citi to 1.2200 at Commerzbank. Firm forecasts reflect a notable divergence, with Goldman at a bullish 1.1800 and Citi on the conservative end with 1.1300, emphasizing the spectrum of market sentiment.
How firms align
Goldman and MUFG both support a bullish outlook, positioning their targets firmly within the upper range at 1.1800 for March 2026, aligning with the softer dollar narrative. Conversely, Citi’s more pessimistic stance at 1.1300 demonstrates a significantly bearish view against the perceived strengthening of the euro, which can be further explored in our internal research on /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path.
What the data shows
Recent revisions from Goldman and MUFG suggest a rising consensus towards a bullish EUR, with both firms adjusting their March 2026 targets upward to 1.1800, reflecting positive sentiment. For further insights on the current landscape, refer to our analysis in /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-07-13.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD currently trades at 1.1434, within tight ranges amidst dollar weakness.
- 02Market lacks conviction for a breakout, indicating careful positioning among traders.
- 03Focus on upcoming economic data releases, particularly from the ECB and Fed.
- 04Commerzbank targets 1.2200 by Q4 2026, reflecting bullish sentiment.
Market implications
Investors should watch for the EUR/USD to maintain its position above 1.1400 as a psychological level while awaiting key economic data releases from both Europe and the US. The median consensus target of 1.1700 may provide a framing for any upward momentum, while positioning adjustments ahead of the next ECB meeting could also influence trends.
Risks to this view
A reversal in this bullish outlook could materialize if the Federal Reserve signals a more aggressive monetary tightening than currently expected, potentially strengthening the US dollar. Any significant economic data undershooting from the Euro Area could also pressure the euro, challenging the existing upside potential.
Sentiment by currency
USD EUR+JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: -0.30
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
Euro: Range-trading bias around recent highs against US Dollar – UOB
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Bulls remain cautious below 23.6% Fibo. and 1.1470 hurdle
Euro gains as softer US inflation weighs on US Dollar
Below-expected US inflation reduces Fed rate-hike expectations, pressuring USD across G10 pairs and extending EUR/USD strength.