Investors worry the bull market is getting old. But history shows it can continue to age gracefully.
Recent concerns among investors regarding the longevity of the current bull market have spurred a healthy debate on Wall Street. Historical patterns suggest that bull markets can sustain themselves beyond perceived expiration dates, thus dismissing the notion that they simply 'die of old age.' This perspective is particularly relevant as traders weigh the implications for market positioning against a backdrop of economic data and Fed policy. The sentiment around the sustainability of the bull cycle may also affect currency dynamics as market participants adjust their strategies accordingly.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.075 (median across 8 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.12) and BofA at the lower (1.04). Marketwatch's view aligns more closely with the upper third — JPMorgan and ING share that framing.
How firms align
JPMorgan remains bullish with a target of 1.10 while BofA's more conservative outlook at 1.04 reflects a cautious stance amid the current market dynamics. Their respective reports indicate a divergence in response to the longevity debate of the bull market, with JPMorgan highlighting strong economic fundamentals supporting a favorable outlook.
What the data shows
Recent flash PMI indicators suggest continued economic resilience, which supports the ongoing strength of the bull market narrative. For more insights, refer to /research/flash-pmi-revisions for contextual data on economic health trends.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Historical trends suggest bull markets can persist longer than anticipated.
- 02Traders should remain flexible in their strategies amid bullish sentiment.
- 03Watch for macroeconomic data releases as potential catalysts for volatility.
Market implications
Investors should monitor upcoming PMI data releases as they could influence sentiment and currency positioning. The current EUR/USD consensus target of 1.075 will be a critical level to watch for signs of reversal or continuation. Additionally, positions may shift as economic indicators are released.
Risks to this view
A significant shift in economic indicators or unexpected Fed policy changes could invalidate the positive view on the bull market's longevity. If economic data begins to show contraction or inflation persists, this could lead to recalibrated outlooks from firms.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
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