FX BANK FORECAST · COVERAGE
Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from 39 institutional desks. No promotion.
This week presents a crucial juncture for equities, as multiple catalysts converge that could shape market direction. Traders are particularly attuned to macroeconomic data and central bank signals, which are anticipated to provide insights into future market movements. The implications of these developments could extend to the FX markets, influencing dollar valuations in tandem with risk sentiment shifts.
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.075 (median across 8 firms), with Goldman at the upper bound (1.12) and BofA at the lower (1.04). [PUBLISHER']s view aligns more closely with the upper third — JPMorgan and ING share that framing.
As we assess the situation, JPMorgan's target of 1.10 for EUR/USD suggests they are optimistic in light of potential bullish catalysts this week. Meanwhile, BofA's more cautious stance at 1.04 indicates a more bearish outlook as they weigh the same data against risk factors. Detailed positions can be found in our internal reports for each firm.
Recent forecast revisions indicate a mixed approach among firms regarding the near-term outlook for the euro. These sentiments reflect the broader uncertainty in the market as economic data is released. For related insights, please refer to our research at /research/... .
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
Market implications
In the coming days, focus will be on the economic data releases and their impact on risk sentiment, particularly as we approach the 1.075 USD level. Additionally, any shifts in central bank commentary could further dictate movements.
Risks to this view
A deviation from expected economic data or central banker comments could invalidate the current view, likely causing EUR/USD to breach the lower 1.04 threshold.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
How we cover this story