Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]
The FX market is witnessing increased attention as volatility persists across major currency pairs, notably EUR/USD and GBP/USD, alongside commodities like gold (XAU/USD). Key monetary policy signals from central banks are driving sentiment, with the USD maintaining a precarious balance. Recent forecasts suggest a divergence in outlooks among analysts, which could lead to significant market movements ahead. The focus is now on upcoming economic data releases that may reaffirm or contest current positions.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus EUR/USD target sits at 1.1600 (median across 11 firms), with Nomura at the upper bound (1.1800) and ABN AMRO at the lower (1.1284). The analysis by FXStreet echoes ongoing concerns about interest rate trajectories and their implications for the Eurozone relative to the USD.
How firms align
Several key firms support a bullish outlook on the EUR, with RBC targeting 1.1700 for March 2026, aligning closely with the market's expectations. Meanwhile, UOB’s updated target of 1.1536 for March indicates a more cautious approach, suggesting varying levels of confidence in the Euro's performance.
What the data shows
Recent forecast revisions indicate a narrowing target range as firms adjust to shifting economic indicators; for instance, Mizuho's target for March has consolidated at 1.1500. This aligns with our ongoing research highlighting the systematic divergence between current levels and consensus, as documented in our report on the ECB rate path /research/eurusd-ecb-rate-path-2026-10-11.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the headline view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01EUR/USD spot at 1.1253 reflects a significant gap from the consensus; a potential reversal could be imminent.
- 02Traders should note the shifting sentiment as central bank policies dictate market behavior.
- 03Key resistance at 1.1300 could trigger further bullish momentum if breached.
- 04Watch for forthcoming economic indicators from the Eurozone that may further influence the EUR outlook.
Market implications
As markets await further data, a test of the 1.1300 resistance level could be a critical inflection point. The consensus target of 1.1600 remains an important benchmark for traders. Positioning ahead of upcoming ECB communications will be key.
Risks to this view
A failure to impress with economic data or a dovish shift from the ECB could undermine the bullish outlook for the Euro. Specifically, if upcoming inflation reports surprise to the downside, markets may adjust forecasts significantly.
Sentiment by currency
USD~EUR~JPY~GBP~Composite USD score: +0.00
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Other coverage on this pair
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