Goldman — FX Research & Bank Forecasts
Coverage overview
Goldman is one of the 18 banks we track. The path you followed doesn't exist, but the full firm hub does — see all currency views, USD bias, and latest trade ideas linked below.
We pull bank research PDFs into a structured, searchable database every 15 minutes. Each firm's view is normalised against the cross-bank consensus so you can see who's leaning bullish or bearish on USD versus the median.
Peer coverage
Bullish MXN on carry, nearshoring flows, and USMCA resolution expectations. Positioning is clean after 2025 washout. Banxico's measured easing pace preserves carry advantage. MXN 13% YTD gain not overextended vs EM peers.
INR supported by RBI reserve accumulation slowing and improving portfolio flows. India's growth premium vs EM peers provides fundamental support, though low beta limits upside.
Nomura forecasts USD/MXN at 19.2 by Q4 2026 (4.3% lower vs current 18.4). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Overvalued dollar to weaken; Asia FX shines as US exceptionalism fades". Bearish stance on MXN reflects the firm's view
Top FX desks we track
INR supported by RBI reserve accumulation slowing and improving portfolio flows. India's growth premium vs EM peers provides fundamental support, though low beta limits upside.
INR steady with RBI support. Low beta limits upside but provides defensive positioning. Targeting 86.50.
BNP Paribas forecasts EUR/USD at 1.21 by Q4 2026 (5.2% higher vs current 1.15). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Gradual USD depreciation in an Expansion regime; EUR and high-yield EM lead, Asia FX lags". Bullish stance on EUR
Citi forecasts USD/MXN at 19.2 by Q4 2026 (4.3% lower vs current 18.4). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "Out-of-consensus bullish USD; cyclical re-acceleration drives a stronger dollar through H1, fading into year-end". Bearish
Commerzbank forecasts AUD/USD at 0.71 by Q4 2026 (7.6% higher vs current 0.66). Consistent with the report's broader thesis: "USD under pressure on excessive Fed cuts and Fed independence concerns; EUR overvalued but USD overvaluation great
INR supported by improving portfolio flows and RBI policy shift. India growth premium provides fundamental support. Targeting 85.00.
Bullish MXN on carry, nearshoring flows, and USMCA resolution expectations. Positioning is clean after 2025 washout. Banxico's measured easing pace preserves carry advantage. MXN 13% YTD gain not overextended vs EM peers.
Latest bank commentary
Japan’s inflation slowed unexpectedly, but BoJ still likely to hike rates in June
ing· ing-think· May 22, 2026ASIA/PACIFIC: Japan’s consumer price index eased unexpectedly in April, mainly due to government measures and lower food prices from last year’s high base. With underlying inflation steady and growth holding firm, we still expect a Bank of Japan rate hike in June
(BOJ Review) Developments in and Characteristics of Japan's FX Market: An Analysis Based on the 2025 BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey
· boj-whatsnew· May 22, 2026Developments in and Characteristics of Japan's FX Market: An Analysis Based on the 2025 BIS Triennial Central Bank Survey May 22, 2026 KATAOKA Kenjiro, NAMIKI Mashu, SHIMADA Masabumi, TAKADA Yoshihiro Financial Markets Department Full Text [PDF 432KB] Abstract In response to the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) set to hand 3.05 trillion to government in record transfer
· investinglive-cb· May 22, 2026The RBI is expected to transfer a record 3.05 trillion rupees to the Indian government, but economists polled by Reuters say the windfall will not prevent New Delhi from missing its fiscal deficit target. Yesterday: Intervention by the Reserve Bank of India sends the rupee sharpl
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8373 (vs. estimate at 6.7992)
· investinglive-cb· May 22, 2026The PBOC allows the yuan to fluctuate within a +/- 2% range, around this reference rate. Injects 153bn yuan via 7-day reverse repos in open market operates today. Unchanged rate of 1.4%. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Philip R. Lane: Europe and the world economy
· ecb-press· May 22, 2026SPEECH Europe and the world economy Keynote speech by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Asian Monetary Policy Forum Singapore, 22 May 2026 Introduction It is an honour to be invited to contribute to the Asian Monetary Policy Forum. My topic today is
(Research Paper) How Do Floods Affect Banks' Financial Conditions? Evidence from Japan
· boj-whatsnew· May 22, 2026How Do Floods Affect Banks' Financial Conditions? Evidence from Japan May 22, 2026 Kakuho Furukawa *1 Komei Suzuki *2 Full Text [PDF 646KB] Abstract This paper investigates the impact of flood disasters on banks' financial conditions. Using granular, municipality-level data from
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