HSBC

Currency Outlook 2026: The year of the yen

LIVE9 December 2025USD bearish

Overview Forecasts Trades Currencies Scenarios Technicals Volatility EM Strategy Macro Quant

Trade Ideas & Portfolio

Name: Investment Bank FX Research Directory
Creator: FX Bank Forecast
License: https://fxbankforecast.com/terms
Keywords: bank FX research, investment bank reports, FX strategy, institutional research directory, bank forecasts

HSBC macro trade themes and current recommendations with P&L tracking

Currency	Trade	Entry	Stop	Target
USD/BRL	Short USD/BRL	—	—	—

3 more trade ideas · entry / stop / target / rationale

Long · EUR/USD

Long EUR/USD — fade Q1 dollar overshoot into Fed cuts

+1.2%

Entry

1.0780

Stop

1.0640

Target

1.1150

Front-end rate differential compression as Fed cuts at the March / June meetings; ECB on hold past mid-year.

Short · USD/JPY

Short USD/JPY — BoJ normalisation re-pricing, positioning unwind

+2.7%

Entry

154.80

Stop

157.20

Target

146.00

BoJ stepwise hikes through 2026; speculative long-USD/JPY positioning at 4-yr highs creates asymmetric downside.

Long · AUD/NZD

Long AUD/NZD — RBA vs RBNZ policy divergence widens

+0.4%

Entry

1.0820

Stop

1.0690

Target

1.1080

RBNZ delivering more aggressive cuts than RBA into year-end; commodity terms-of-trade still favour AUD.

Short · GBP/CHF

Short GBP/CHF — UK fiscal risk + SNB pause

-0.3%

Entry

1.1240

Stop

1.1410

Target

1.0920

UK gilt risk premium re-emerges around Autumn statement; SNB done cutting, real-rate gap narrows.

Live P&L tracking · stop & target levels · macro rationale

4 active trades · macro themes, live tracking, and closed-trade P&L unlock with Retail.

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Aggregated year-end forecasts, scenario shifts, and curated analyst notes from eight institutional desks. No promotion.