A World Tour
Lead — 4-6 sentences. In the face of mixed international stock market performances in 2026, the desk asserts that regional divergences are pivotal for FX positioning. European equities are seeing a resurgence as sectors outside of technology begin to take center stage, particularly banks and industrials, reflecting a broader cyclical recovery. Per the full note from J.P. Morgan, this trend bodes well for Euro-denominated assets, suggesting potential strengthening of the Euro against the US Dollar. Meanwhile, significant outflows from Indian equities pose risks for the INR, with foreign investors withdrawing more than $29 billion in the first half of the year. This backdrop creates a nuanced trading environment for FX strategies across key pairs, as traders respond to these market dynamics.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames the argument that the uneven performance of international equities in 2026 could lead to notable shifts in FX sentiment and trading strategies. European markets are particularly favored, as sectors like banks and cyclicals gain traction, potentially bolstering the Euro as it strengthens against the USD.
Supporting this, J.P. Morgan highlights that European equities have been buoyed by a rotation beyond tech stocks, even while China's market struggles to form a stable momentum. The influx of capital into European equities might suggest traders will favor EUR/USD positioning in the near term.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for EUR/USD stands at 1.075, with forecasts reflecting divergence among firms: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26)
This view aligns with our jpmorgan stance, which anticipates upward pressure on the Euro as regional equities gain momentum. Conversely, bofa holds a slightly bearish position on the pair, indicating that their target is at the lower end of our consensus range.
How other firms see it
The sentiment on Euro performance is shared among firms such as jpmorgan and others who favor a bullish outlook on the currency, likely due to shifting equity dynamics. In contrast, bofa takes a more bearish approach, anticipating potential headwinds that could affect currency strength.
Traders should pay close attention to the EUR/USD pair as it may reflect broader trends influenced by European industrial performance and potential shifts in investor sentiment toward risk assets. Additionally, the backdrop of fluctuating Asian markets, particularly in India, introduces additional complexity in positioning.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01European stock markets are driving stronger equity performance through a rotation from technology stocks.
- 02India faces significant capital outflows, with over $29 billion withdrawn by foreign investors in H1 2026.
- 03A bullish sentiment in the Euro could support upward movement against the US Dollar.
- 04Traders should closely monitor EUR/USD fluctuations as a reflection of broader market dynamics.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the EUR/USD trading range around 1.075, as further strength in European equities could push the pair higher. A focus on sectoral shifts may signal changing sentiment, particularly with attention on how European banks perform against US market indicators.
Risks to this view
A key risk factor that could invalidate this bullish stance is a sudden deterioration in European economic indicators, potentially reversing the recent positive performance of equities. Additionally, if capital outflows from emerging markets accelerate, it may weigh down investor sentiment and negatively impact the Euro's strength.
How are international stock markets performing? ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ View online Insights In Context * How have international equities held up in 2026 so far? * Silver prices have fallen after posting record highs at the start of the year. Why? * Discover the key opportunities for investors across alternative investments Not a subscriber? Sign up for In Context.
WEALTH MANAGEMENT International stock market performance has been uneven in 2026 European equities have been supported by a rotation beyond tech stocks, with banks, industrials and other cyclicals now playing a larger role. Elsewhere, China's onshore market has struggled to sustain momentum, while in Japan, performance has been powered by AI- and semiconductor-related stocks. GO GLOBAL BY THE NUMBERS Indian equities have experienced significant outflows, with foreign investors pulling more than $29 billion from the market in the first half of 2026.
With physical tightness unwinding and rate hikes on the horizon, J.P. Morgan Global Research sees silver prices averaging $70/oz in 2026 and $63/oz in 2027. Alternative assets under management have grown significantly, from just $1.2 trillion in 2000 to $21.6 trillion in 2025.
RESEARCH Silver prices face an uncertain outlook _"Last year, illiquid, tight physical markets skewed silver's volatility toward significant outperformance amid gold's rally. Now, the significant unwinding of physical tightness off an elevated valuation base for silver sets up a backdrop where, on days when gold slips, silver has a much more outsized tumble."_ Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy, J.P. Morgan SEE OUTLOOK ASSET MANAGEMENT 3Q 2026 Guide to Alternatives Within alternatives, selection is key, and there are benefits to diversifying exposure across asset classes to reduce volatility.
From 2015 to 2024, venture capital, private equity, infrastructure and direct lending led the way in terms of returns, while hedge funds ranked lowest. EXPLORE STRATEGIES jpmorgan.com |Unsubscribe |Privacy Policy |Online Activity Safeguards |Cookies Policy (c) 2026 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A. Member FDIC. Deposits held in non-U.S. branches are not FDIC insured. ‌ J.P.
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A World Tour