CEE & CCA week ahead: Czech and Polish inflation data
Per the full note from ING Think, the desk's CEE/CCA week-ahead flags Poland's final September CPI print on Wednesday as confirming headline inflation at 4% YoY, with the Czech final release on Tuesday alongside August current-account data for both economies. The operational takeaway for FX is less about the print itself — the flash has already anchored market expectations — and more about the composition, with core easing while regulated prices and fuels do the heavy lifting. Poland's short-term outlook has been flattered by a fresh cut to excise duty and VAT on fuels extended through end-2026, keeping headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% YoY band into year-end, but ING explicitly warns the energy crisis may force a jump in regulated household prices from the start of 2027.
What the desk is arguing
The core thesis, per the ING note authored by Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant, is that CEE disinflation is intact at the core but masked by administered and fuel-driven components, so the September finals should read as confirmation rather than surprise.
The evidence stack is unambiguous: Polish headline CPI rose to 4.0% YoY while core eased, indicating broad-based inflationary pressure is still absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services. ING also notes the fiscal response — authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until end-2026 — which mechanically caps headline CPI in a 3.5–4.0% YoY range through year-end.
The alternative read would be that the repeated fiscal interventions are themselves evidence of unfinished inflation, and that the 2027 regulated-price step-up is being under-priced in the curve. ING does not dismiss that risk — it explicitly flags the energy crisis as the trigger for a potential jump in regulated household prices from the beginning of 2027.
How other firms see it
On the current account, ING's own forecast has the August Polish deficit slightly above €2bn, modestly narrower than August 2025, leaving the 12-month rolling deficit near 1% of GDP. Export and import growth of goods is expected to have moderated back to single digits after two months of double-digit foreign trade expansion — a signal that the external tailwind is fading, not reversing.
Watch Poland's CPI curve and the NBP's reaction function, alongside EUR/PLN positioning into the Wednesday print, and Czech producer prices into the Tuesday release. The wider CEE complex — HUF crosses and the CNB's rate path — will trade the same core-vs-headline tension.
What the calendar says
With no high-impact prints flagged in the next 30 days for these jurisdictions on our end, the practical calendar is the source's own: Czech final inflation and producer prices on Tuesday, Polish final September CPI and August balance-of-payments on Wednesday. Both land before month-end positioning, so a hotter core in either print would be the first real test of the disinflation narrative into Q4.
Key takeaways
- 01Poland final September CPI on Wednesday should confirm headline at 4.0% YoY with core easing, per ING's Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant.
- 02Fiscal relief — excise duty and VAT cuts on fuels extended to end-2026 — anchors ING's 3.5–4.0% YoY Polish CPI range into year-end.
- 03August Polish current account deficit forecast slightly above €2bn, leaving the 12-month rolling deficit near 1% of GDP.
- 04ING flags regulated household energy prices as a potential upside shock from the beginning of 2027.
- 05Czech final inflation and producer prices on Tuesday are the week's second catalyst, with the current account deficit seen narrowing.
Market implications
For PLN, the asymmetry sits with core: a softer core adds conviction to the NBP easing path and pressures EUR/PLN higher, while an upside surprise in core or regulated components unwinds the 2027-dated disinflation trade fast. For CZK, producer prices on Tuesday are the cleaner signal on pipeline pressure, so watch EUR/CZK for reaction to that release rather than the headline CPI confirmation. Positioning into both prints is likely light given the flash has already been published, meaning the second-order reaction could be outsized relative to the surprise.
Risks to this view
The call is invalidated if either final print shows core inflation re-accelerating rather than easing, which would force a repricing of the NBP and CNB forward paths and drag the 2027 regulated-price risk forward into spot. A second risk is a sharper-than-forecast Polish current account deterioration — a deficit materially above €2bn — which would remove the last external cushion for CEE FX. Finally, any renewed energy-price spike on global markets would validate the regulated-price warning and push headline CPI above ING's 4.0% ceiling.
Articles CEE & CCA week ahead: Czech and Polish inflation data Published 11:30 Czech Republic Poland Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Poland and the Czech Republic will publish final inflation figures next week, alongside current account data Adam Antoniak and David Havrlant Next week's final September CPI reading for Poland should confirm that headline inflation rose to 4% YoY Poland: Final CPI reading set to confirm inflation at 4% The final September CPI reading released on Wednesday should confirm that headline inflation rose to 4% YoY, while core inflation eased, indicating that broad-based inflationary pressure is still absent and price growth remains concentrated in fuels and closely related goods and services. Yet the ongoing energy crisis may trigger a jump in regulated prices for households from the beginning of 2027. The short-term inflation outlook has improved with authorities cutting excise duty and VAT on fuels again, this time until the end of 2026.
As a result, headline CPI should run within the 3.5-4.0% YoY range by the end of the year. August BOP data will also be released on Wednesday. We forecast that in August the current account deficit was slightly higher than €2bn, but slightly lower than in August 2025.
As a result, the 12-month rolling current account deficit remains at around 1% of GDP. Growth in exports and imports of goods is expected to have moderated back to a single-digit pace after two months of double-digit expansion in foreign trade growth. Czech Republic: Final inflation reading and producer prices ahead The final release on Tuesday is set to confirm September’s headline inflation figure, while attention will focus on the degree of gains in core inflation and regulated prices.
The current account deficit probably became less pronounced in August, supported by decent export performance. Meanwhile, persistently elevated energy prices on global markets, rising input costs, and a weaker koruna are likely to have contributed to stronger producer price inflation in September. Key events in CEE & CCA next week Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts "> Source: Refinitiv, ING Forecasts CEE & CCA week ahead Content Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by ING solely for information purposes irrespective of a particular user's means, financial situation or investment objectives.
The information does not constitute investment recommendation, and nor is it investment, legal or tax advice or an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Read more Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Share X LinkedIn E-mail Copy link Download Authors Adam Antoniak Senior Economist, Poland Adam has about 20 years of experience in macroeconomic research. He has worked for leading financial institutions in Poland (Bank Pekao, Bank BPH), and members of international financial groups… David Havrlant Chief Economist, Czech Republic David joined ING in 2024 as Chief Economist for the Czech Republic.
He gained professional experience at the Czech National Bank and international institutions such as the ECB, the EC,… In this article Poland: Final CPI reading set to confirm inflation at 4% Czech Republic: Final inflation reading and producer prices ahead
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