Bank Of America Forecast: Positive On Pound Sterling, Possible GBP/USD 10-year Highs In 2026 - Exchange Rates Org UK
The desk is optimistic about the Pound Sterling's trajectory, projecting potential GBP/USD highs not seen in a decade by 2026. Per the full note from Bank of America, this outlook hinges on a favorable macroeconomic environment and a possible shift in Bank of England (BoE) policy. The desk's view is supported by recent data suggesting a strengthening UK economy, which could drive the GBP higher against the USD. Current positioning and market sentiment also indicate a growing appetite for GBP, particularly as the Federal Reserve's tightening cycle appears to be nearing its end.
What the desk is arguing
The desk supports Bank of America’s optimistic tone on the Pound Sterling, anticipating that GBP/USD could reach levels not seen in a decade by 2026. Key economic indicators are expected to improve, allowing the currency to appreciate further against the US Dollar, promoting a positive outlook among market participants.
Supporting this view, other major institutions have also revised their GBP forecasts upward, aligning with Bank of America's targets. Given the strong consensus among leading banks, the narrative that the Pound could see significant gains against the Dollar appears to be gaining traction in the FX market.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for GBP/USD stands at 1.4000 for December 2026, within a range of 1.3300 to 1.4200. This median forecast reflects similar bullish sentiment expressed by various banks, including Bank of America, which also projects a December target of 1.4000, suggesting a strong agreement on the Pound's long-term trajectory.
Specific firm targets show alignment: - JPMorgan: 1.3600 - Morgan Stanley: 1.4700 - Deutsche Bank: 1.4200 These projections collectively reinforce the belief that GBP/USD will maintain an upward momentum, potentially reaching the highs predicted by Bank of America in the next few years.
How other firms see it
Several major banks' recent assessments align closely with Bank of America’s bullish forecast, showcasing confidence in the Pound's trajectory. - Goldman: Forecasts a lower range but shows positive revision trends - MUFG: Positive outlook with similar upward adjustments
In contrast, while most banks echo a bullish sentiment, any varying targets are primarily conservative or moderated, such as those from Goldman, which set lower expectations.<|vq_1971|>
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01Bank of America foresees significant long-term gains for the Pound.
- 02Firm consensus among leading banks supports a stronger GBP/USD outlook.
- 03Market conditions indicate a favorable environment for GBP appreciation.
Market implications
A strong GBP could adjust investment strategies and influence trading positions, particularly for those exposed to GBP/USD. Additionally, shifts in interest rate policies and economic performance metrics will play a crucial role in sustaining this bullish outlook.
Risks to this view
The main risks to this bullish forecast include potential economic slowdowns, shifts in central bank policy that could lead to GBP depreciation, and geopolitical events that might undermine investor confidence in the UK economy.
GBP/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2027 |
|---|---|---|
Goldman Sachs | Bullish | 1.3600 |
UOB | Bullish | 1.3445 |
Citi | Bearish | 1.2400 |
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.73% Below Spot — Week of July 11, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3402 against a 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, leaving spot just 0.73% shy of consensus with a 0.23-figure dispersion range.
GBP/USD: Consensus Targets 1.35 but Morgan Stanley Sees 1.47
Cable trades at 1.3402, just 0.73% below the 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, but a 0.23 spread signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed rate path.
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.35 Target, 0.23 Spread — Week of July 10, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3402, just 0.73% below a 21-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, but a 0.23 dispersion signals deep disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.