Bank of Canada rate decision 2.25% vs 2.25% expected
Prior was 2.25% Rates have been held steady since a cut in October Before the decision, the market was pricing in 2.4 bps of hiking at the July 15 meeting, or a 10% chance of a hike. Skipping ahead to December, there are 36 bps of hiking priced in, or a hike and a 44% chance of a
USD/CAD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
BNP Paribas | Bullish | 1.35 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.34 |
Société Générale | Bullish | 1.40 |
All 25 desk targets for USD/CAD
Desk synthesis pending
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Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3984 vs 1.35 Median Target, Week of September 19, 2026
USD/CAD trades at 1.3984, roughly 3.59% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with dispersion spanning 0.11 from Citi to Deutsche Bank.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3992, Median Target 1.35 — Week of September 18, 2026
USD/CAD trades at 1.3992, roughly 3.64% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 spread separating the most and least bearish desks.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3992, Median Target 1.35 — Week of September 17, 2026
USD/CAD trades at 1.3992, roughly 3.64% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the BoC-Fed policy gap.