Bank of Canada rate decision 2.25% vs 2.25% expected
Prior was 2.25% Rates have been held steady since a cut in October Before the decision, the market was pricing in 2.4 bps of hiking at the July 15 meeting, or a 10% chance of a hike. Skipping ahead to December, there are 36 bps of hiking priced in, or a hike and a 44% chance of a
USD/CAD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bullish | 1.35 |
UBS | Bullish | 1.34 |
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.36 |
All 25 desk targets for USD/CAD
Desk synthesis pending
We’re writing the institutional analysis for this note — multi-section body, firm-by-firm alignment chips, key takeaways, market implications, risks. The synthesizer processes the queue hourly, with priority by citation density.
In the meantime, the most useful reads are the related coverage and primary source below — both reach the same substance from different angles.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3997 vs 1.35 Target, Week of August 6, 2026
USD/CAD trades at 1.3997, roughly 3.68% above the 25-firm Dec-2026 consensus median of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the policy gap.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.4062, Median Target 1.35 — Week of August 5, 2026
USD/CAD trades at 1.4062, roughly 4.2% above the 25-firm median Dec-2026 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 spread separating Citi from Deutsche Bank.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.4073, Median Target 1.35 — Week of August 4, 2026
USD/CAD trades at 1.4073, roughly 4.24% above the 25-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.35, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling meaningful disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.