Bank of Canada rate decision 2.25% vs 2.25% expected
Prior was 2.25% Rates have been held steady since a cut in October Before the decision, the market was pricing in 2.4 bps of hiking at the July 15 meeting, or a 10% chance of a hike. Skipping ahead to December, there are 36 bps of hiking priced in, or a hike and a 44% chance of a
USD/CAD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Rabobank | Bullish | 1.36 |
ING | Bearish | 1.42 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.34 |
All 26 desk targets for USD/CAD
Desk synthesis pending
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Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.4101 vs 1.36 Median, Week of Nov 6 2026
USD/CAD trades 3.69% above the 26-firm Dec-26 median of 1.36, with a 0.11 dispersion range flagging unusually wide disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3956 vs 1.36 Target, Week of November 5, 2026
USD/CAD trades 2.61% above the 26-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.11 dispersion range signalling genuine strategic disagreement on the BoC-Fed gap.
USD/CAD Consensus Check: Spot at 1.3957, Median Target 1.36 — Week of November 4, 2026
USD/CAD trades 2.63% above the 26-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.36, with a 0.11 spread separating Citi's 1.43 from Deutsche Bank's 1.32.