Bank of Japan Accounts (April 10)
The desk believes that the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) asset composition signals a commitment to maintaining accommodative monetary policy, which could keep the yen under pressure. Per the full note source, the BoJ's total assets amount to approximately ¥661.65 trillion, with a significant portion allocated to Japanese government securities at ¥530.35 trillion. This asset structure, coupled with the ongoing Loan Support Program totaling ¥49.13 trillion, suggests that the central bank is unlikely to pivot towards tightening in the near term, especially ahead of key economic indicators like GDP growth and trade balance due in May.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames this as a clear indication that the BoJ is prioritizing economic stability over currency strength. The substantial holdings in government securities and the ongoing support programs reflect a strategy aimed at sustaining growth rather than curbing inflation through rate hikes.
Moreover, the BoJ's foreign currency assets stand at ¥11.69 trillion, indicating a cautious approach to currency management. This suggests that any significant appreciation of the yen may not be supported by the central bank's current policy stance, as they continue to prioritize domestic economic recovery.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.08 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which sees a slightly higher target, while bofa presents a more bearish outlook at the lower end of the range. The desk's call is positioned near the upper bound, suggesting a potential for further yen weakness.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi share a similar outlook, anticipating continued yen depreciation due to the BoJ's accommodative policies. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, expecting a stronger yen as global economic conditions improve.
Watch USD/JPY closely, as its trajectory will likely be influenced by upcoming economic data releases from Japan, particularly the GDP growth rate and balance of trade figures. These indicators will provide insight into the effectiveness of the BoJ's current policies and their impact on the yen.
What the calendar says
With the GDP Growth Rate and Balance of Trade data scheduled for May 19, these releases will be critical in assessing the health of the Japanese economy and the potential for any shifts in the BoJ's policy stance.
Bank of Japan Accounts (April 10, 2026) April 14, 2026 Bank of Japan Assets (thousand yen) Gold 441,253,409 Cash 1 427,619,436 Japanese government securities 530,354,354,855 Corporate bonds 2 2,184,411,579 Pecuniary trusts (index-linked exchange-traded funds held as trust property) 3 37,116,632,960 Pecuniary trusts (Japan real estate investment trusts held as trust property) 4 653,728,627 Loans (excluding those to the Deposit Insurance Corporation) 77,720,000,000 Foreign currency assets 5 11,685,221,263 Deposits with agents 6 50,180,481 Others 1,017,743,796 Total 661,651,146,409 Liabilities and Net Assets (thousand yen) Banknotes 115,874,094,111 Current deposits 456,106,762,992 Other deposits 7 46,490,517,415 Deposits of the government 3,569,337,473 Payables under repurchase agreements 23,392,476,640 Others 8 1,855,490,933 Provisions 10,586,442,843 Capital 100,000 Legal and special reserves 3,775,923,999 Total 661,651,146,409 Coins reserved for circulation. Includes bonds issued by real estate investment corporations. Beneficiary interests in index-linked exchange-traded funds purchased through a trust bank.
Investment equity issued by real estate investment corporations purchased through a trust bank. Foreign currency deposits held at foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements, securities issued by foreign governments, foreign currency mutual funds, and foreign currency loans, such as (1) loans by U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations against pooled collateral and (2) loans pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement to enhance the fund-provisioning measure to support strengthening the foundations for economic growth conducted through the loan support program. Deposits held at agents that conduct operations relating to treasury funds and Japanese government securities on behalf of the Bank of Japan.
These deposits are reserved for such operations. Deposits held by foreign central banks and others. Includes miscellaneous liabilities and current income (net accumulated profits).
For reports at the beginning of the fiscal year, net income for the previous fiscal year is also included prior to its appropriation. (Annex Table 1) Breakdown of Japanese government securities (thousand yen) Japanese government bonds 530,354,354,855 Treasury discount bills 0 (Annex Table 2) Loan Support Program The table below represents the loan amounts outstanding under the Bank's Loan Support Program. (thousand yen) Fund-Provisioning Measure to Support Strengthening the Foundations for Economic Growth * 598,586,080 Fund-Provisioning Measure to Stimulate Bank Lending 48,533,100,000 Total 49,131,686,080 The figure for the loans other than those pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement is included in "Loans" as Assets, and that for the loans pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement is included in "Foreign currency assets" as Assets. (Annex Table 3) Annex Table 3 (thousand yen) Loans by Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled Collateral (including funds provided under the fixed-rate method), Funds-Supplying Operation to Support Financial Institutions in Disaster Areas and Funds-Supplying Operations to Support Financing for Climate Change Responses 28,931,300,000
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