Bank of Japan Accounts (April 20)
The desk views the latest Bank of Japan accounts as a pivotal indicator of the central bank's ongoing accommodative stance, which is likely to continue influencing JPY dynamics. Per the full note source, the BoJ's total assets stand at approximately ¥662 trillion, with significant holdings in Japanese government securities totaling ¥531 trillion, reflecting its commitment to maintaining liquidity in the economy. This expansive balance sheet underscores the central bank's intention to support economic growth, especially ahead of key economic indicators such as GDP growth and trade balance data scheduled for May. The desk anticipates that these factors will keep USD/JPY trading within a range of 1.04 to 1.12 in the near term.
What the desk is arguing
The desk argues that the Bank of Japan's substantial asset base, particularly its holdings in government securities, signals a sustained accommodative monetary policy. This is evidenced by the BoJ's total assets amounting to ¥662,320,848,332, with ¥531,123,791,208 in Japanese government securities, highlighting its role in supporting the economy.
Furthermore, the BoJ's Loan Support Program, which has outstanding loans of ¥49,131,686,080, reinforces its commitment to facilitating economic growth. This data suggests that the central bank is unlikely to pivot towards tightening in the immediate future, maintaining pressure on the JPY.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.08 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which also sees a stronger USD/JPY outlook, while bofa presents a more cautious stance at the lower end of the spectrum. The desk's target sits comfortably within the consensus range, indicating a balanced outlook among peers.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi share a bullish perspective on USD/JPY, anticipating continued weakness in the JPY due to the BoJ's accommodative policies. Conversely, bofa holds a more bearish view, expecting the JPY to strengthen against the USD.
Key indicators to watch include the upcoming GDP growth rate and balance of trade figures, which could further influence market sentiment around the JPY and the BoJ's policy stance. The trajectory of USD/JPY will likely reflect these developments closely.
What the calendar says
With the GDP growth rate and balance of trade data set to be released on May 19, these events will be critical in shaping market expectations for the JPY. Traders should monitor these releases closely as they could provide insights into the effectiveness of the BoJ's current policies and their impact on the currency.
Key takeaways
- 01BoJ's total assets are approximately ¥662 trillion, with significant holdings in government securities.
- 02The Loan Support Program indicates the BoJ's commitment to economic growth.
- 03Consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12.
- 04Upcoming GDP and trade balance data will be crucial for JPY dynamics.
Market implications
Watch for USD/JPY to remain within the 1.04 to 1.12 range, particularly as the May 19 GDP growth and trade balance data approach. A significant deviation from these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment.
Bank of Japan Accounts (April 20, 2026) April 22, 2026 Bank of Japan Assets (thousand yen) Gold 441,253,409 Cash 1 431,152,484 Japanese government securities 531,123,791,208 Corporate bonds 2 2,087,807,389 Pecuniary trusts (index-linked exchange-traded funds held as trust property) 3 37,107,196,650 Pecuniary trusts (Japan real estate investment trusts held as trust property) 4 653,510,022 Loans (excluding those to the Deposit Insurance Corporation) 77,720,700,000 Foreign currency assets 5 11,692,372,849 Deposits with agents 6 47,932,661 Others 1,015,131,658 Total 662,320,848,332 Liabilities and Net Assets (thousand yen) Banknotes 115,905,890,266 Current deposits 464,669,225,870 Other deposits 7 47,285,052,455 Deposits of the government 6,298,004,780 Payables under repurchase agreements 12,187,050,433 Others 8 1,613,157,681 Provisions 10,586,442,843 Capital 100,000 Legal and special reserves 3,775,923,999 Total 662,320,848,332 Coins reserved for circulation. Includes bonds issued by real estate investment corporations. Beneficiary interests in index-linked exchange-traded funds purchased through a trust bank.
Investment equity issued by real estate investment corporations purchased through a trust bank. Foreign currency deposits held at foreign central banks and the Bank for International Settlements, securities issued by foreign governments, foreign currency mutual funds, and foreign currency loans, such as (1) loans by U.S. dollar funds-supplying operations against pooled collateral and (2) loans pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement to enhance the fund-provisioning measure to support strengthening the foundations for economic growth conducted through the loan support program. Deposits held at agents that conduct operations relating to treasury funds and Japanese government securities on behalf of the Bank of Japan.
These deposits are reserved for such operations. Deposits held by foreign central banks and others. Includes miscellaneous liabilities and current income (net accumulated profits).
For reports at the beginning of the fiscal year, net income for the previous fiscal year is also included prior to its appropriation. (Annex Table 1) Breakdown of Japanese government securities (thousand yen) Japanese government bonds 531,123,791,208 Treasury discount bills 0 (Annex Table 2) Loan Support Program The table below represents the loan amounts outstanding under the Bank's Loan Support Program. (thousand yen) Fund-Provisioning Measure to Support Strengthening the Foundations for Economic Growth * 598,586,080 Fund-Provisioning Measure to Stimulate Bank Lending 48,533,100,000 Total 49,131,686,080 The figure for the loans other than those pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement is included in "Loans" as Assets, and that for the loans pursuant to the special rules for the U.S. dollar lending arrangement is included in "Foreign currency assets" as Assets. (Annex Table 3) Annex Table 3 (thousand yen) Loans by Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled Collateral (including funds provided under the fixed-rate method), Funds-Supplying Operation to Support Financial Institutions in Disaster Areas and Funds-Supplying Operations to Support Financing for Climate Change Responses 28,932,000,000
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