BOJ set to hit 1% but vote split, bond taper pause and July signals are the real story
A clean 25bp hike with unchanged forward guidance would be the least market-moving outcome and is broadly what consensus expects. The risk events sit on either side: a 50bp move or a hawkish dissent from the reflationary wing of the board would steepen the JGB curve and put a bid
USD/JPY — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
Bank of America | Bullish | 149.00 |
UOB | Neutral | 163.50 |
UBS | Bullish | 150.00 |
All 23 desk targets for USD/JPY
Desk synthesis pending
We’re writing the institutional analysis for this note — multi-section body, firm-by-firm alignment chips, key takeaways, market implications, risks. The synthesizer processes the queue hourly, with priority by citation density.
In the meantime, the most useful reads are the related coverage and primary source below — both reach the same substance from different angles.
Sources & References
How we cover this story
Cross-firm research
USD/JPY at 158.46: Consensus Targets 150 by Dec-2026
USD/JPY trades 5.64% above the 23-firm Dec-2026 consensus of 150.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 157.74, Dec-26 Median 150.0 — Week of August 6, 2026
USD/JPY trades 5.16% above the 23-firm Dec-2026 median of 150.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion range signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ-Fed spread path.
USD/JPY Consensus Check: Spot at 157.68, Dec-26 Target 150.0 — Week of August 4, 2026
USD/JPY trades at 157.68, roughly 5.1% above the 23-firm Dec-26 consensus of 150.0, with a 25.5-point dispersion signalling deep disagreement on the BoJ rate path.