CIO Fixed Income Roundtable Series: Performance update & outlook
In the latest insights from UBS' Chief Investment Office, the fixed income landscape is projected to remain influenced by ongoing Fed policies, with expectations of multiple rate cuts ahead. Per the full note, the firm anticipates further reductions of 25 basis points within this year and into the first quarter of 2026 as inflation trends stabilize. The recent achievement of the year-end target for the 10-year Treasury yield at 4% exemplifies recovery in fixed income despite recent volatility. This positioning offers potential trade opportunities, particularly as market sentiment shifts in response to the Fed's meeting-by-meeting approach to policy decisions.
What the desk is arguing
The desk frames the upcoming outlook for fixed income as one shaped by a clear trajectory of declining rates from the Federal Reserve. After achieving the anticipated 10-year Treasury yield of 4%, signs indicate that positions may shift in preparation for the Fed's expected cuts later this year and into 2026.
Supporting this stance, UBS highlights the distinct volatility that has characterized the year while acknowledging the recovery in previously lagging fixed income sectors. There is also emphasis on a data-dependent Fed that has established a baseline for future policy decisions which should guide investor sentiment.
Where it sits in our coverage
In alignment with the anticipated downward rate adjustments, our consensus target for the fixed income sector reflects a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar-26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar-26)
This view is consistent with the broader consensus, aligning tightly with jpmorgan while at odds with bofa, which expects more conservative yield levels at the lower end of the spectrum. This positioning signals confidence in potential appreciating strategies driven by impending Fed cuts.
How other firms see it
Aligned firms reflect a bullish sentiment around declining rates and potential for further yield recovery, particularly observing a consensus among jpmorgan. In contrast, bofa presents a more cautious stance on the sustainability of such yield levels, emphasizing risk factors and market corrections.
Relevant currency pairs to watch include USD/JPY and EUR/USD, as both will likely reflect market sentiment driven by Fed decisions and broader economic indicators.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Contrary positioning
Key takeaways
- 01UBS anticipates multiple Fed rate cuts in the coming months, supporting fixed income recovery.
- 02The 10-year Treasury yield has reached its year-end target at 4%, indicating market alignment with Fed policies.
- 03Increased volatility during the year has been met with cautious optimism for fixed income positions moving forward.
- 04A data-dependent Fed continues to guide investor expectations and market sentiment.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the 10-year Treasury yields for shifts, especially in light of the anticipated Fed cuts. Positioning strategies in related currency pairs like USD/JPY may provide signals as the market reacts to changes in monetary policy and economic data releases.
Risks to this view
Any signs of persistent inflation or a stronger-than-expected economic rebound would invalidate the current call for lower rates, forcing a reconsideration of Fed projections and potentially halting the expected downward trajectory in Treasury yields.
Hi everyone, Dan Cassidy here. Welcome back to the CIO Fixed Income Roundtable podcast series here on the UBS Market Moves podcast channel. Joining us for this month's roundtable, glad to welcome members from CIO's Fixed Income team for the Americas.
We do have joining us Letty Zimades, Barry McElindan, Frank Saleo, as well as Sadiq Merkurji joining us to moderate today's roundtable. Glad to welcome back head of taxable fixed income strategy for the Americas, Leslie Falconeo. So with that, Leslie, I'll pass it over to you to lead today's roundtable.
Welcome back. Thank you, Dan. I appreciate it.
Yeah, I'm actually looking forward for today because not only is it, are we five days away from the quarter end and it's hard to believe that we are entering the last quarter of the year because it's been a, as quickly as this year has seemed to go by, and it definitely has been one that has been met with a bounce of volatility, but on the fixed income side, we've seen a lot of recovery over the past several months, even from those sectors that have lagged. And from the perspective of the CIO, I mean, recently we've reached our year-end target of 10-year treasury yield, which is 4%. We saw that right before the Fed meeting last week.
And while we were anticipating a 25 basis point cut from the Fed and they delivered, and by the way, we are anticipating, you know, another two cuts this year, followed by one cut in the first quarter of 2026, what we learned from the Fed, you know, is a lot of disparity in the sense that this is still a meeting-by-meeting type of venue, they're still very data dependent, we're seeing a lot of divergence in terms of where the Fed believes what we call that neutral rate, if you will, where you're neither accommodative nor restrictive, well, actually will be. And more importantly, one of the things that we discussed as well is that, you know, prior to the Fed meeting, the fixed income market being forward-looking and a bit of a speculative market, once again, had a tendency to be a little bit overzealous in terms of the pricing, you know, pricing these cuts a bit overzealous in terms of thinking that consumer demand might start to deplete given the fact that the labor market is starting to weaken, but, you know, we had second quarter revisions again to GDP, which were higher, you know, we still have capital markets that remain incredibly wide open with a lot of investor demand, and we also are dealing with a lot of tight spreads within the fixed income market, although carry, the driver of total return, still remains. So I really want to kick off with one of the sectors that has had a great recovery, you know, over the past several months, and one that, you know, is incredibly important to UBS and our advisors and clients, and that's to go to Frank Taleiwa and the preferred market.
So, Frank, I just wanted to just touch on, you know, given the volatility that we've seen from the preferred market, you know, in 2025, you know, how has it reacted to sort of like the Fed and how the capital markets have remained open, also to, you know, again, we're hard to believe, but we're heading into the fourth quarter. How do you see the performance for the remainder of the year? Yeah, definitely.
Thank you very much, Leslie. I appreciate it. Yeah, you know, as we come to the end of the third quarter year, preferreds are having a very good year, both the $25 par, what we call the retail preferred sector, and the $1,000 par, institutional preferred sector as well.
And as we look at those subsector returns between those two categories, it's really the $25 par preferred that have had a tremendous recovery, as you alluded to a moment ago. And looking at the performance of the $25 pars versus the $1,000 par preferred, it's almost like a strange version of the old tortoise and the hare story. But in this version of the story, the race is a tie so far.
You know, all year, those institutional $1,000 par preferreds have been delivering slow and steady returns month after month. But more recently, over the past four months, the retail $25 par preferreds have been dramatically outperforming. As a matter of fact, since May 31st, if we just look at the summer months to date, since May 31st, $25 par preferreds are up just about 9%.
That follows significant underperformance at the start of the year. So if we look at year-to-date performance at the end of May, the $1,000 par preferreds were up 2.5% year-to-date, while the $25 par preferreds were down 2.5% at that point. And looking at, you know, this dichotomy, really, the underperformance at the start of the year and then the outperformance more recently, it's somewhat more attributable to the higher correlation between $25 par preferreds and stocks.
And these returns, this return experience of the $25 par retail preferreds seems to coincide with the S&P 500 experience this year being, you know, at the cusp of a bear market in early April and then subsequently rallying very strongly during the summer months and consistently making brand new highs even as we head to the end of September here. So after underperforming $1,000 pars at the start of the year, $25 par preferreds have closed the gap. And overall, both the sector overall is up by about 7% year-to-date, a little bit more for the thousands, a little bit yet less for the 25s, but just about 7% year-to-date overall, which is really pretty good.
So I've been making the point all year that it's important to have exposure to both of these subsectors and that the institutional preferreds can really help investors get better or help to try to get better risk-adjusted returns and more complete exposure to preferred sector. The point I've been trying to make is that by adding $1,000 pars to the mix, preferred investors may be able to improve overall risk-adjusted performance by reducing those return correlations with other sectors, including common stocks. But you don't want to fully discount or fully disregard the $25 par prefers either, because these retail preferreds, they tend to have fixed-rate coupons.
Most of them are trading at discounts, in some cases steep discounts to their par value. And most importantly, these $25 par retail preferreds have a longer duration. And now that the Fed has started to cut rates again, it's important to have some of that long-duration exposure.
Traditionally, $25 par preferreds have what they call negative convexity, and that just means their sensitivity to higher yield increases as those yields increase. But at this point, convexity for the $25 par preferreds is close to zero. Their duration is pretty much as high as it's going to get.
So a reduction in interest rates from here or a reduction in market yields from here should provide a nice tailwind for the $25 par preferreds in the months ahead. Having said that, as we think about the drivers of return from here for the remainder of the year, as you asked, Leslie, I think sector valuation will remain a limiting constraint. You alluded to that at the start of this call, the tight spreads that investors have been dealing with, struggling with, the challenge of tighter spreads in fixed income broadly.
That's been the case all year for most fixed income sectors. We've had credit spreads in high yields reach historic lows. Investment-grade credit spreads are, I keep seeing headlines, they're near 25-year lows, 27-year lows.
I know we're going to hear from Lenny and Barry on this in a few minutes. But for preferreds, tighter credit premiums are just not likely to drive returns from here. They're already pretty tight, so it's unlikely we're going to see them compress even further.
There's just no catalyst on the horizon that would lead to credit premiums to tighten even further. So, although we expect the interest rate environment to remain favorable, especially now that the Fed has begun to cut rates again, it leaves interest rate trends to be the tailwind. But again, they're not likely to provide much of a meaningful tailwind.
The CIO did publish our latest forecast for the 10-year Treasury yields. We're looking for them to go to about 375 a year from now. As you mentioned, the 10-year Treasury hit your 4% target very recently.
So, there'll be a bias towards lower interest rates from here, but it's just not enough to really provide a meaningful tailwind for preferreds. And from a valuation standpoint, frankly, that's already been fully discounted. That environment really is fully discounted into current preferred valuations.
So to sum up, Leslie, I'd say overall, there's minimal capacity in current preferred credit premiums to provide a cushion against any unexpected drive toward significantly higher market yields from here, whether it's from unexpectedly higher rates or wider credit spreads. And frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback between now and year-end. You know, it's unlikely that those consistent monthly gains that we've been seeing since the summer, month after month after month, it's unlikely we're going to see that continue.
We could see more choppy performance as we head into 2026, more like the two steps forward, two steps back, or at least one step back type of performance pattern that we see from time to time. And that's what I expect in the months ahead, Leslie. I'll turn it back to you.
Yep. Thank you, Frank. And actually, you know, that was a great, you know, overview.
And one of the things that you emphasized, which I couldn't agree with you more, is the diversification part. And you know, as we've all discussed as a team, we know that fixed income spreads, you know, are tight overall as a sector, and there's, you know, the opportunities that, in terms of spreads, it's not necessarily the widest that we've seen. But it's important to note as well is that while we are anticipating cuts from the Fed, you know, it's CIO's point of view that these are non-recessionary cuts.
So when we have these types of non-recessionary cuts, it doesn't necessarily mean, as the Fed starts to cut, you know, from very high Fed funds rate, that you're going to have this necessarily really large, you know, blowout and spread. So while we'll have, we could see slight spread widening, they're not going to fall off a cliff by any stretch. But the diversification part is definitely the key to any portfolio.
And one of the things that, you know, as I go over to Leti, is that when we see in the marketplace, just even with tight spreads, how, you know, how open I would say the capital markets are and how, you know, eager investor demand is. So Leti, when I turn it over to you, when we talk about like high yield, we know spreads are incredibly tight, but that investor demand seems to be there, even with the dislocation and the disparity we are seeing among different credit classes. So again, I want to sort of touch base to you in terms of how you viewed the Fed, you know, the current environment, and what you're thinking about going into the latter part of the year.
Well, if I could just use one word for high yield, I would say that it's just been resilient. Once there was, you know, we got the news that the Fed, during Jackson Hole, was possibly going to be easing, we saw spreads tighten even further, up by 42 basis points. To put this in context, the average over the past 20 years for spreads has been around 500, and we're at 271.
So we're at a historical spread. I don't see much spread compression from here. Again, we're at, you know, historical lows.
Also, we've seen yields also come down from the beginning of August. It was about 715. We're at a 660 now.
And, you know, it's like, you know, 60 basis points of being much lower. We're at yields right now that we haven't seen since April of 22. The CIO feels, you know, going forward, probably, you know, mid-year, our target for spreads is 350.
But I think that, you know, that could be choppy. We've got very positive news in the economy, such as today, kind of much stronger than expected. We have a revision in GDP, you know, up to 3.8.
There was an increase in personal consumption. Turbo goods was up. We're expecting a negative number.
It came up to close to 3 percent. Jobless claims comes over. So I think, as you mentioned earlier, it's going to be very data dependent on what happens.
But all this up news on the economy is very positive for high yields. High yields also has a very low duration. It's at 2.8 years, where the average typically is 4 to 5.
And issuance is the biggest story. We're at $43 billion this month, the highest of the year. And it's been just $10 billion just this month alone, which shows you how much demand there is for investors, especially when we're expecting, you know, the Fed to cut.
And, you know, companies are still issuing. So we have – as for technicals, you know, it's very strong for high yields, and it's supportive as, you know, investors keep buying it. Default rates also, it's at a 1.3.
And although we've had the tariff noise and geopolitical, you know, noise, high yields still, you know, been resilient. We're expecting maybe 2 to 3 percent next year. But, again, that would have to be if the economy, you know, slows down, because right now the companies are very strong.
They cleaned up their balance sheets during the pandemic. And also one thing that has improved default rates is that the typical CCCs that used to go to high yield, they're going to private credit now. So that also has helped significantly under default rate.
As to performance, what do I see? It's performed extremely well this year. High yield is up 7.3 percent, with the winners being Telecom over 10 percent and healthcare at 9.5.
The lag has been retail around 4.7, but that's, you know, due to the tariff noise there. High yield has beat loans by 270 basis points. You know, loans are only up 4.6.
From now to the end of the year, I feel it's going to be a carry trade. I don't think you're going to get any returns from the spread compression. But we could see another 1 to 2 percent.
I wouldn't be surprised to your end, especially if we don't have the slowdown and we keep getting these positive economy numbers like we did today. And for right now, my recommendation is, you know, high yield, again, a carry trade. But if you wanted to put in, like, fresh new money, I mean, you wait to see if it gets a little bit wider than here because, you know, it is rich right now.
But lower rates also, as the Fed cuts, is also going to be more supportive for high yield. So you may want to, like, you know, inch in there. As for loans, that's been more of a risk-off as of late with the expectation that, you know, rates are going to be cut.
But still, that's yielding 8.6. We have a neutral view on loans. So I think that's also a good thing.
It's also good, like, you know, like Frank mentioned, to diversify. You know, by having these different sectors in your portfolio, you're diversifying and you're getting, you know, these are the riskiest part, you know, riskier than IG. But you're getting a good pickup and a good carry.
So it's good to lock in yields now before they cut further. Yeah, thanks, Lyn. And, you know, one thing that you mentioned, particularly with the high yield market, and I couldn't agree with you more, it's a great word, is resilience.
And that's definitely what the high yield market has witnessed, particularly since, you know, the April wide that we saw during that month of volatility. They seem to have not only recovered, but they've recovered and really stayed in a fairly narrow range. So, you know, we've had this resilience within high yield for quite some time now.
And to your point, while yields, you know, the yields worse are not, you know, ample compared to history, you know, they still represent very good carry versus alternatives. Now, one of the things I had mentioned in, you know, the beginning of the call was when I talked about fixed income was those such as high yield that's been, you know, fairly resilient and has tightened for several months, and those that have recently, sectors that have recently recovered, which brings me over to you, Sadiq, to talk about what we've seen, like, you know, in the muni market and talk about recovery. So, again, I want to ask you how has sort of the shift in Fed policy impacted the muni market, and what do you see in terms of the end of the year?
Yeah, sure. Happy to comment on that, and thanks for having me in the call, Leslie. So, before I get to full quarter, just a kind of a backdrop of where munis are.
So, the immediate reaction of munis to the Fed cut was relatively muted. Yields didn't change all that much. However, over the last one month, 45 days, in part due to anticipation of the cuts, the rally in rates coinciding with a pullback in supply from very elevated levels, the muni market did rally very strongly.
Munis were one of the best performers in fixed income over the last month or so. But that said, the total story, the whole story did not change all that much. Total return on the index is now in positive territory, but still significantly lagging other fixed income assets.
Also, the other theme of the market that we've seen this year, munis are generally less volatile than treasuries and corporates, but not so this year, as many have seen unusually high vol and driven by those supply pressures, and we'll come to that in a minute. So, underperformance and high vol, but the silver lining and the corollary to that is opportunity still persists in the muni market. Yields are still high, index tax equivalent yield at 6.1%, California-New York in-state bond at about 7.5%, still hovering near that 15-year high, so a lot of opportunity in the market still.
The AAA curve did bull flatten over the last month or so. The theme obviously has been steepening this year, so that was a welcome change. But the curve still remains very steep, particularly in the 10- to 30-year area, both relative to its own historical average as well as to the treasury curve.
So, longer duration munis for longer investment horizons still remains a very attractive proposition, a thing that we highlighted about a month back. But coming to fourth quarter, the drivers of total return will be a combination of flows, technicals, and rates. Let me just comment on those individually.
Flows have been strong since the April sell-off, and historically they have been very strong into a Fed easing cycle. This time is no different in our view, so we do expect flows to generally remain strong, albeit they're never in a straight line. With respect to technicals, the picture is more mixed.
October, we expect October to present some challenges to the market. Technicals are weakening as supply is rising again, just as reinvestment demand is declining. So that net supply is what we call demand-supply balance, or technicals in short, will weaken or expected to weaken in October, but should improve later in November and December.
So that's a bit of a mixed picture. So that's a bit of a mixed picture. Rates, I think Frank put it well, muni index performance is really driven by 10-year and 20-year treasury rates when you look at key rate durations. 10-year is fairly close to our year-end target.
It actually reached our target and has backed up a little bit. So from that perspective, we don't see a whole lot of price precision potential in the near term. That's limited in our view.
And finally, I haven't talked about credit. Credit this year has not created a major role in performance. Lower quality, triple B and high yield spreads have been compressed.
That's the same theme that he talked about. Relative to instructor averages, we don't see a competitive opportunity from a risk-reward perspective, especially given that the labor market is weakening in lower-rated credits. But to summarize, longer horizon opportunities persist in the muni market, and we strongly believe that.
Twelve-month forward returns from where the yields are, where the slope is, and where flows are headed are all supportive of performance. Near term, there could be some potential weakness in technicals. There could be some pullback in the market, but that would represent a buy-the-dip opportunity for longer-term investors.
So 4Q outlook is somewhat mixed. We do expect a year-end rally, but October could present challenges. Those 12-month, 15-month, or 18-month forward total returns look fairly attractive driven by income returns in terms of total return performance.
Let me hand it back to you, Leslie. Thank you, Steve. I agree in the sense that given not just in terms of the muni and potential short-term technical and performance that we might see going into the end of the year, but I also believe that given how well all fixed income is done, you might see these pockets of spread widening, and I agree with the buy-the-dip, and looking at that as an opportunistic period to actually add to your fixed income, given the fact, again, that we are looking for the Fed to cut, but we are not looking for a recession over the next year.
But one sector that has done very well and continues to have large demand both domestically and abroad is the corporate market, which leads me over to you, Barry. And I know you just recently wrote a great piece in terms of discussing the impact of deregulation and how this might affect the IG corporate market, particularly when it comes to financials. So, again, I just want to, from a manager of a sector that has done incredibly well and has had tremendous demand, how do you see, if at all, any change with what the Fed is doing or how they might perform, how investor-grade corporates might perform into the end of the year?
Yeah, thanks, Leslie. So, I mean, the main headline is that investment-grade spreads, they're tightest levels since the late 90s, as mentioned on the call. But that said, they're only about seven basis points tighter on a year-to-date basis.
So they've been tight all year, so really nothing's deviated from what we've seen before this. We think that the tight spreads are warranted when you think about the strong fundamental environment where we've been in a very good earnings backdrop. EBITDA growth, that's a main metric that we look at for credit fundamentals.
That's exceeding debt growth. So credit metrics are going to be in check as long as that's persisting, which in CIO, we do think that the earnings environment will persist into next year pretty well. And then when you look at the technical, also making headlines just this week is the record amount of issuance that we've seen during the month of September.
So total volume of investment-grade corporates is tallying up to be about over $200 billion, currently around $200 billion, with some time left to go in the month. That's on pace to be the sixth-largest issuance month on record. I think the reason why you're seeing this is a combination of this historically tight spread environment, plus a window where, especially after Jackson Hole, we did see rates come down compared to where they had been over the past couple of years.
We've been in a higher-rate environment than we've been in now. So it's a good opportunity for issuers to tap these markets. I think there is some opportunistic, I think, front-loading.
I think the street's looking for October, November issuance, and December to be lower than where we are now. But the demand is there. A lot of it in investment-grade is automatic.
There's this built-in institutional demand that occurs in the market. So I think the technical picture is fine, but I would say fundamentally that's probably what matters more. That said, we think that the tight level of spread is warranted in this environment.
That said, obviously the trajectory for spreads is going to be wider than tighter over time. What drives that widening, we'll see. But we don't expect, given kind of the risks that are known in the marketplace right now, we're not expecting any sharp widening of credit spread to take place.
So definitely as we move into the fourth quarter, still looking for a lot of the same, where you have the return from investment-grade corporates likely to be derived from the coupon component, plus just general fluctuation, mostly on the Treasury yield side, we think, probably more so than credit spreads, which we think should stay pretty firmly range-bound. So the outlook for IG, I think, actually gets a little bit better if you compare what's happening to cash yields, where, like, for example, the three-month Treasury bill did get below 4% recently. The first time since we've been in this hiking cycle that that's happened.
And as that differential persists, we expect that decompression of cash yields will continue to decline as the Fed cuts rates. And the IG yield, though, we really kind of see a floor in that low 4% coupon handle probably not likely dipping below 3% based on our outlook for rates and spreads. I think there's still going to be an appeal, you know, for moving out the curve into investment-grade corporates.
And just to wrap up, though, obviously, you know, with this strong performance comes a more challenging environment to seek out relative value. Within the corporate sector, you know, there's really just two industry sectors that are a bit wider than they've been historically. That's regional banks and utilities.
So those are kind of two pockets where spreads are actually wider than their 10-year averages. But otherwise, you know, everything's really tight. And, you know, we've been recommending basically that intermediate belly part of the curve.
I think that's also supported by the fact that if you think about how much credit spread you pick up for going out beyond 10 years, that's actually historically flat. So you don't pick up much more than about 10 basis points. So, you know, it's much longer duration, you know, for going out further beyond 10 years.
Plus you're not picking up credit spread, you know, supportive of our view to kind of stick with the intermediate maturities, you know, for the best total return potential, you know, and for buy and hold to maturity investors still really like kind of that one to 10-year ladder strategy where you can just, you know, clip that coupon along the way. And then I'd also mention, though, you know, beyond the investment-grade corporate sector, we do see better relative value. And Leslie, this is driven by your views in higher quality segments in the agency MBS and CMBS securitized market.
So, you know, if you are looking for where there's other better pockets of value beyond investment-grade corporates, you could seek out agency MBS and CMBS. Consider that as well. Thank you, Barry.
And listen, Brad, there's two things that you said that I think are really important. And, you know, I don't think investors actually realize, and you touched upon this and I have many times as well, is that, you know, they see the headline risk of spread tightening, but to your point, year to date, spreads aren't really materially tighter since they were from the beginning of the year. And one of the reasons why this was is that after the election, you know, the market was pricing in a lot of this U.S. exceptionalism, so they came into the year tight.
That's the first thing. I think the second thing, Barry, that you said, which I think is really important, is that while spreads are tight, if the fundamentals support this, then they will likely stay within this range. And remember, spreads are simply the risk premium that investors are expecting given a certain risk, whether it's, you know, say for IG credit risk.
And if the fundamentals support low risk, whether it's low leverage, better corporate balance sheets, you know, an outperforming equity market, then spreads will stay in this range. But it's not spreads that are the tailwind of total return for fixed income. It's compounding income.
So I do think that, you know, when we go forward, you know, fixed income and both equity have both had a very good year. It's the exact opposite, luckily, of what we saw in 2022. There's no question that we will have, you know, pockets of volatility and, you know, small bouts of vulnerability, but overall we're going to look at that kind of movement as an opportunity to buy the dip.
Assuming that our forecast for growth, you know, is correct, meaning that we do anticipate growth slow. That is the consensus, but we were not anticipating a recession. We do expect the Fed to continue their cutting cycle.
But again, data dependence and, you know, each meeting will still remain. So you're going to keep seeing a little bouts of volatility from very low levels. But overall, you know, I think for everyone on this call, we would agree that fixed income overall is at a very good year.
We continue to expect it in 2026 to be a strong performer, but as everyone on this call has really focused on, the performance driver is going to be driven by compounding income, not necessarily movements and rates and obviously not things from like spread. So with that, I thank everyone very much for being on this call. And, you know, we'll see you in, you know, November.
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