Citi: GBP/USD To Hit 1.24 By 2027 - Forex Factory
Citi's projection of GBP/USD reaching 1.24 by 2027 suggests a more bearish outlook compared to the current market consensus. The recent consensus shows a median target significantly above Citi's long-term forecast, indicating expectations for sustained strength in GBP as monetary policy diverges between the UK and other regions. Despite Citi's caution, current targets from multiple firms imply a range of sentiments about GBP's strength. The market anticipates that ongoing economic recovery and potential rate hikes from the Bank of England may support GBP's upward movement, positioning the currency positively against the dollar in the near term.
What the desk is arguing
Citi is projecting that GBP/USD will decline to 1.24 by 2027, a forecast that contrasts with the prevailing market optimism surrounding the currency pair. Their outlook appears to be rooted in caution over potential economic and monetary policy challenges that the UK may face in the coming years.
This view diverges sharply from a broader market consensus that anticipates GBP/USD trading higher. Currently, the median target across surveyed firms for GBP/USD is around 1.3500 by March 2026, suggesting a belief in resilience within the UK economy and confidence in potential policy shifts which could boost the Pound versus the Dollar.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our current consensus for GBP/USD stands at 1.3500 for March 2026, spanning a range of 1.3300 to 1.3800 among surveyed firms. This is in stark contrast to Citi's prediction, highlighting significant divergence in outlooks and a consensus leaning towards a stronger GBP in the near term.
Specifically, several firms have set targets that reflect this optimism:
- JPMorgan: 1.3700 (Mar26)
- Goldman: 1.3300 (Mar26)
- Morgan Stanley: 1.3800 (Mar26)
How other firms see it
Other firms appear to have a more optimistic view of the GBP/USD outlook compared to Citi's bearish stance. Bases on their recent updates, firms like Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays project values around 1.3500 or higher for the near term, indicating an expectation of continued strength in GBP.
- Aligned with the bullish outlook:
- Morgan Stanley: 1.3800 (Mar26)
- Barclays: 1.3500 (Mar26)
However, this contrasts with Citi's long-term forecast, suggesting that while sentiment is currently bullish, there remains the risk of significant challenges ahead that could temper expectations.
How firms align with this view
Aligned with the desk view
Key takeaways
- 01Citi expects GBP/USD to decline to 1.24 by 2027, contrasting sharply with current market expectations.
- 02The consensus target for GBP/USD is significantly higher, suggesting optimism regarding the GBP's strength.
- 03Key firms remain aligned in their projections for GBP/USD to trade above 1.35 in the near term.
Market implications
Citi's bearish outlook could signal potential headwinds for GBP traders if economic conditions don't improve as expected. Conversely, the strong consensus across leading firms may sustain bullish sentiment, possibly leading to increased demand for GBP relative to the USD in the near-to-medium term.
Risks to this view
The primary risks centered around Citi's forecast include economic shocks in the UK, slower-than-anticipated growth, or a shift in monetary policy that fails to support the GBP. Additionally, geopolitical factors and global economic uncertainties could also impact GBP's performance against USD.
GBP/USD — All Desk Targets
| Firm | Stance | YE 2026 |
|---|---|---|
UOB | Bullish | 1.3440 |
MUFG | Bullish | 1.4000 |
Scotiabank | Bullish | 1.3675 |
All 19 desk targets for GBP/USD
Sources & References
How we cover this story
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Cross-firm research
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.355 Target, 1.337 Spot — Week of October 23, 2026
Cable trades 1.30% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects a live BoE-vs-Fed rate debate.
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.355 Target, 1.24–1.50 Spread — Week of Oct 22, 2026
Cable trades at 1.3381, roughly 1.24% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects deep disagreement on BoE-vs-Fed sequencing.
GBP/USD Consensus Check: 1.355 Target, 1.333 Spot — Week of Oct 19, 2026
Cable trades 1.62% below the 20-firm median Dec-26 target of 1.355, with a 0.26-point dispersion that reflects genuine disagreement on the BoE-Fed divergence trade.