Consumption Activity Index
Lead — The desk sees a potential uptick in the Japanese Consumption Activity Index (CAI) as a key indicator of private consumption trends, which are crucial for GDP growth. Per the full note source, the CAI is essential for assessing business cycles, given that private consumption constitutes about 50% of Japan's GDP. The upcoming release of GDP growth data on May 19 will be pivotal in confirming or challenging this outlook. The desk anticipates that strong CAI readings could bolster the JPY against major currencies, particularly if they exceed market expectations.
What the desk is arguing
The desk posits that the Consumption Activity Index (CAI) will show positive momentum, reflecting a recovery in private consumption that could support Japan's economic growth. Per the full note source, the CAI is compiled using various sales and supply-side statistics, providing a comprehensive view of short-term consumption activity. Given the importance of private consumption in driving GDP, any significant uptick in the CAI could signal a robust economic rebound.
Recent trends indicate that the CAI has been revised to better capture changes in consumption patterns, which may enhance its predictive power. The desk notes that the CAI is released monthly, with the next data point due on May 12, 2026, potentially setting the stage for a positive narrative ahead of the GDP release on May 19.
Where it sits in our coverage
Our consensus target for USD/JPY is 1.075, with a range of 1.04 to 1.12. Notable firm targets include: - jpmorgan: 1.10 (Mar26) - bofa: 1.04 (Mar26) - citi: 1.12 (Mar26)
This view aligns with jpmorgan, which anticipates a stronger JPY as economic indicators improve, while bofa remains more cautious, placing their target at the lower end of the range. The desk's outlook sits at the upper bound of the consensus spread, suggesting a bullish stance on the JPY.
How other firms see it
Firms like jpmorgan and citi are aligned with the desk's positive outlook on the CAI, suggesting a consensus that stronger consumption data will support the JPY. Conversely, bofa holds a contrary view, projecting a weaker JPY based on more cautious economic assessments.
The trajectory of USD/JPY will be closely tied to the upcoming CAI release and subsequent GDP data, as both indicators will provide insight into the health of the Japanese economy and the Bank of Japan's potential policy responses.
What the calendar says
With the GDP growth rate and balance of trade data scheduled for May 19, the market will be closely watching these releases to gauge the impact of consumption trends on overall economic performance. The CAI data on May 12 will serve as a precursor to these critical indicators, potentially shaping trader expectations ahead of the GDP announcement.
Key takeaways
- 01The Consumption Activity Index (CAI) is crucial for assessing Japan's economic health, given its significant contribution to GDP.
- 02Upcoming CAI data on May 12 will provide insights into private consumption trends ahead of the GDP release on May 19.
- 03The desk anticipates a stronger JPY if the CAI shows positive momentum, aligning with the bullish targets set by some firms.
- 04Contrary views exist, particularly from **bofa**, which maintains a more cautious outlook on the JPY.
Market implications
Traders should monitor the upcoming CAI release on May 12 for signs of stronger consumption that could bolster the JPY. A significant beat in the CAI could push USD/JPY towards the upper target of 1.10 or higher, especially ahead of the GDP data on May 19.
Consumption Activity Index 日本語 Research Data Explanation and Related Materials Notices of Changes Notice Inquiries Private consumption makes up roughly 50 percent of total GDP. Therefore, a timely and precise assessment of the developments in private consumption is deemed important for making judgments on business cycles in the macroeconomy. From this viewpoint, the Research and Statistics Department of the Bank of Japan provides research data titled "Consumption Activity Index (CAI)" on a regular basis.
The CAI is compiled by using a variety of sales and supply-side statistics on goods and services as its source statistics and is provided as a measure for capturing short-term consumption activity on both monthly and quarterly bases. Various series of the CAI -- such as nominal and real indexes, indexes with/without adjustments of travel balance, and a breakdown by type of goods/services -- are available to meet various analytical needs. The data are, in principle, released at 2:00 p.m. on the fifth business day of each month; however, this release schedule is subject to change.
Details on the compilation methodology are available in the following research papers. Nakamura, Kawata, Tanaka, and Uemae "The Consumption Activity Index," Bank of Japan Research Papers, May 2016. Nakamura, Miura, and Maruyama, "The Consumption Activity Index: Improvements of Release Contents and Revisions of Compilation Methodology," Bank of Japan Research Papers, October 2016.
Kanafuji, Mandokoro, Kato, and Sugo, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Address the 2008 SNA and Improve Accuracy," Bank of Japan Research Papers, April 2018. Takahashi, Kondo, Munakata, Okubo, and Iwasaki, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Capture Recent Changes in Consumption Patterns," Bank of Japan Research Papers, July 2021. Takata, Ozaki, Nakazawa, Noro, and Kato, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index Following the 2020 Base Revision of GDP Statistics," Bank of Japan Research Papers, April 2026. (Currently only available in Japanese; an English version is under preparation.) Research Data Table : Research Data Date Title Data May 12, 2026 Chart [PDF 14KB] May 12, 2026 Data [XLSX 52KB] Explanation and Related Materials Explanation Nakamura, Kawata, Tanaka, and Uemae "The Consumption Activity Index," Bank of Japan Research Papers, May 2016.
Nakamura, Miura, and Maruyama, "The Consumption Activity Index: Improvements of Release Contents and Revisions of Compilation Methodology," Bank of Japan Research Papers, October 2016. Kanafuji, Mandokoro, Kato, and Sugo, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Address the 2008 SNA and Improve Accuracy," Bank of Japan Research Papers, April 2018. Takahashi, Kondo, Munakata, Okubo, and Iwasaki, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index to Capture Recent Changes in Consumption Patterns," Bank of Japan Research Papers, July 2021.
Takata, Ozaki, Nakazawa, Noro, and Kato, "Revision of the Consumption Activity Index Following the 2020 Base Revision of GDP Statistics," Bank of Japan Research Papers, April 2026. (Currently only available in Japanese; an English version is under preparation.) Seasonal Adjustment Specifications for Seasonal Adjustment (as of May 2026) [PDF 123KB] Notices of Changes Apr. 30, 2026 Updates on the Consumption Activity Index June 6, 2025 Revision of the Consumption Activity Index Apr. 25, 2025 Change in the Release Date of the Consumption Activity Index for March 2025 June 7, 2022 Revision of the Consumption Activity Index June 5, 2020 Revision of the Consumption Activity Index May 1, 2020 Change in the Release Date of the Consumption Activity Index for March 2020 July 6, 2018 Revision to the Consumption Activity Index May 10, 2017 Revisions to the Consumption Activity Index Notice Charts and data available here are provided to inform some of the Bank of Japan's research and analysis to a wide range of users with interests in economic and financial developments. Please note that these charts and data are subject to unscheduled changes, revisions, and terminations. Please contact the Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department to request permission when reproducing or copying the content of these charts and data for commercial purposes.
Please credit the source when quoting, reproducing, or copying the content of these charts and data. Inquiries Economic Assessment and Projection Group, Economic Research Division, Research and Statistics Department Tel : +81-3-3279-1111
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Consumption Activity Index